Tecnocasa traces the evolution of the market since 2013, highlighting the dynamics of transactions, prices and demand for mortgages, as well as the impact of monetary policies and global economic trends.
“2023 closed with 709,591 thousand trades. We are far from the peaks of the boom years – he states Fabiana Megliola, Head of the Tecnocasa Group Research Office – when 869,308 trades were reached but also since the lows of 2013, when the market closed with 389,448 transactions. And it is precisely from 2013 that we start to understand how the market has moved and what has characterized it in recent years”.
“The Italian credit market – he adds Renato Landoni, President of Kiron Partner SpA – has shown remarkable capacity for adaptation and resilience in the face of significant economic challenges and global changes. A demonstration of this is the overall growth that has characterized the disbursement of mortgages to families for the purchase of homes over the last ten years. Favorable monetary policies, together with the response of credit institutions and market dynamics, have played a crucial role in supporting the demand for mortgages which has always been robust and cyclically influenced only by the subrogation market. Instead, the demand for mortgages for purchase has always been constant and only partly conditioned by interest rate dynamics, confirming that the purchase of real estate is a cornerstone of Italians’ investment strategy. Demand is constantly increasing and the reduction in interest rates that has been underway for a few months now represents a good opportunity for families. It is likely that the ECB will intervene again in the coming months by further reducing the reference rates”.
In 2013 you reach the minimum peak of transactions with 389,448, returning to the levels of the 1980s, prices are still falling (-8.7%) but less than what was recorded in 2012, the most difficult year in which the drop in prices was 10.2% following a difficult economic situation in the country and a restriction on the provision of credit. Sales times are long, 178 days. Towards the end of 2013 there began to be the first signs of a recovery in the demand for financing from families who, despite the lackluster trend in consumption and the labor market, seem to be regaining confidence.
In 2014 mortgages are starting again, families’ demand for credit is rising and the ECB injects liquidity into the financial markets through Quantitative Easing. Business and consumer confidence is restarting. All this determines an increase in real estate demand which in the meantime becomes more selective. Transactions increase, while prices still do not take off and close with -7.2%.
In 2015 real estate demand continues to grow, transactions also and sales times are starting to contract, a sign that the market is heading towards a new phase. All this has not yet been transferred to prices which continue to decrease but less than in the past (-4.2%). This is thanks to the credit market which is experiencing a sharp increase in demand also thanks to very low rates (variable rate indices are negative). Historically low rates and affordable property prices are a mixture that triggers a market recovery phase.
In 2016 sales volumes take a leap forward and grow by 18.6% supported by the recovery of the credit market: disbursements, in fact, increased by 20.6% in 2016. Prices are moving towards stability and closing the year with a reduction of -1.6%.
In 2017 the market now seems to have taken the path out of the real estate crisis. There real estate demand recovers, investors return to the market, sales times are reduced (141 days). The credit market continues to give positive signals even if the first slowdowns are visible with volumes in line with previous years. Sales are still growing and close at 543,188. Prices remain stable.
In 2018 the positive trend of the real estate market continues: sales are increasing and the year closes with 579,207 transactions. The credit market continues to give positive signals and in 2018, the recovery is confirmed with prices starting to grow again and marking +1.6%.
In 2019 the real estate market confirms the positive trend. The trades continue to grow: 604,168. For some years now, the credit market has continued to give positive signals even if in the first part of 2019 there was a slight slowdown in disbursements. Prices closed with +2.2%.
In the 2020 the market opens in a positive way but the pandemic in March puts the world and the real estate market on standby. The forced closure at home, however, leads to a greater awareness of one’s home with the consequence that, immediately after the end of the lock down, the demand for homes resumes. The required characteristics are starting to change with the search for homes with outdoor spaces and larger spaces. Investors stop, especially those who were focusing on the tourism and short-term rental segment in light of the decline in tourist flows. It closes with 558,722 trades. THE prices suffer a setback (-1.5%) apart from Milan, Verona and Bari which continue to show a slight recovery in values. The trend of national disbursement for 2020 is growing and, despite the pandemic period, reaches 50.5 billion euros with a change of +5.2% compared to 2019.
In the 2021 in 2021 the sales, on the euphoric push of the post Covid, they reach the peak of 749,377i prices grow by 2.6%. The real estate market is lively and rapidly recovering, as evidenced by both the data on volumes traded and those on prices. Housing demand, which exploded after the first lockdown, showed no sign of decline and continued to grow, driven by the desire to buy a house and by the push of the credit market, which has never been so convenient. 2021 ends with 61,611 billion euros in mortgages disbursed, with a growth margin compared to 2020 of approximately 11 billion euros (+22%). The institutions, in light of the strong liquidity at their disposal, continued to provide credit to families, paying particular attention to the quality of the credit granted. The concessions for the benefit of young people provided for in the PNRR have worked.
In the 2022 the conflict breaks out in Ukraine, with all the consequences this will have on an economic level: with rising inflation and rising rates to combat it. It is precisely the fear of inflation that leads investors to take action, many of whom will do so with the aim of practicing short rent in light of the strong tourist flows returning to the country. 2022 closes with record sales, 785,382, prices growing by 3.6%. On the credit side, 2022 ends with 55.3 billion euros of mortgages disbursed, with a decrease compared to 2021 of -9.2% equal to a value in terms of volumes of -5.6 billion euros.
In 2023 high mortgage rates, the greater attention of credit institutions to disbursement reduces the number of people who can buy a house. Trades close at 709,591. Prices are still increasing slightly since the housing supply is still low: +0.7%. Attention remains high on new buildings and energy efficiency which leads to greater repricing on used solutions.
