Bibi hopes. Noa and the other hostages freed a point in his favor. But not for the ceasefire

The discovery of four live hostages by the Israeli army in an operation conducted by the IDF in the center of the Gaza Strip, in Nuseirat, can be observed from two different perspectives. On the one hand it is certainly a tactical, but also political success for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, because it strengthens his thesis according to which military pressure on Hamas can lead to the release of the hostages and gets the war cabinet back on its feet, at least for the moment. Israeli. On the other hand, however, it is a success that has major limitations and does not seem to be capable of changing the overall picture of the conflict, nor of orienting its future.

So far there have been only two military operations carried out by the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) in the Strip – two men, Fernando Simon Marman and Louis Har were saved in February in an operation similar to today’s one, however carried out in Rafah – and they hostages were found alive. A total of 7 people have been saved so far, while other operations of this type have on some occasions resulted in the death of hostages – according to the IDF at least one hostage, 25-year-old Sahar Baruch, was killed. The operation carried out by Israel to free the hostages caused several civilian victims. According to the Palestinian Ministry of Health, there is a “huge number” of dead and injured Palestinians in Gaza. The exact figure is not known. Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, also to dismantle the success of the operation carried out by Israel, underlined that the Jewish State, to save a few hostages, provoked “deadly fights”.

The release of the hostages can be considered a partial tactical victory for the Israeli prime minister. Because it comes at a time when the negotiations for the ceasefire and the release of the hostages seemed destined to fail completely. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s strategy of continuing the war and not accepting an agreement receives support. Netanyahu’s detractors find themselves in difficulty, so much so that Benny Gantz, centrist leader and minister of the war cabinet, Bibi’s main rival, immediately after the news of the finding of the hostages, cancels the press conference in which he was supposed to announce, in all likelihood , his resignation from the war cabinet. It is not the right moment for Gantz, because the wind, at this moment, is favorable to Netanyahu. According to Haaretz, Gantz will hold consultations to determine whether the hostage rescue is a significant enough development for him to reconsider leaving the government.

Gantz steps out. Netanyahu can still resist, but he is much weaker

by Nadia Boffa

For Ahron Bregman, expert on Arab-Israeli relations and professor in the Department of War Studies at King’s College London, heard from Huffpost, “the discovery of the hostages is an Israeli tactical success, which will be used by Netanyahu to strengthen his thesis that military pressure on Hamas results in the release of the hostages.” Today Netanyahu, thanking Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi, the Shin Bet Ronen Bar, underlined that “Israel will not stop until it has completed the mission and brought all our kidnapped people home.” But – underlines Bregman ad Huffpost – what Netanyahu says is only partially true, since such operations are relatively rare.” For the King’s College analyst, “if the Israelis want to recover the remaining 120 or so hostages, many of whom are already dead, they will necessarily need an agreement with Hamas.”

The one carried out this morning by the Israeli forces is in fact a sui generis operation, planned for some time. Netanyahu and Defense Minister Gallant, as revealed by the Times of Israel, approved it two days ago, but IDF spokesman Daniel Hagari explained that it was “a complex operation, planned for several weeks, which It took place under heavy enemy fire.” Complex intelligence information, collected over several weeks, was used and fighters from the special units, added Hagari, “operated in two different buildings and we resorted to massive fire, including from other fighters, including the Navy, to protect our strengths.” A tortuous offensive, but planned down to the smallest detail, which caused the death of the Israeli anti-terrorism special forces agent “Yaman”, Chief Inspector Arnon Zamora. Without forgetting that the USA would also have participated in the operation, according to what American sources told CNN.

Bregman also notes that such operations “will likely be more difficult to execute” in the future, as Hamas will be more careful not to be caught. “It could even move the hostages it holds on the surface into the tunnels, where it is more difficult to operate militarily” observes the analyst.

That said, there is something highly symbolic in the liberation, in particular, of Noa Argamani, together with Almog Meir, 21, Andrey Kozlov, 27 and Shlomi Ziv, 40. Because the 25-year-old Israeli had become the symbol of the attacks October 7, the symbol of Hamas brutality. Argamani appeared in a video from October 7 while Hamas terrorists took her away on motorbikes amid her screams: “Don’t kill me”. Then she reappeared in a video in January and May, also published by the militia. In the last one, dating on May 31, the girl asked the Israelis to mobilize to “push the government to act for the release of the hostages”. Now Argamani becomes the symbol of Israel’s hope, with the hostages’ families speaking of a “miraculous triumph” and returning to believe they can bring all the prisoners home. But it is also the symbol of a new phase that could open for Prime Minister Netanyahu, who found himself, until a few hours ago, in an enormous crisis of legitimation, of internal political crisis, as well as an internal and external reputation crisis.

It is no coincidence that Bibi immediately wanted to speak by telephone with the young woman, who had just been released, together with the President of the Republic of Israel Isaac Herzog. “We didn’t give you up for lost not even for a moment. I don’t know if you believed it, but we believed it and I’m happy that it happened” Netanyahu said, taking up the cause of the hostages’ release, when in reality, in recent months, his priority was to continue military operations. “We will not stop until we have completed the mission and brought all our abductees home.”

This finding is a bit of a light at the end of the tunnel for Netanyahu, because it comes at the end of another complex week for Israel, from the point of view of isolation by the international community. Just two days ago, again in Nuseirat, Israel carried out an attack on a United Nations school full of hundreds of displaced people, resulting in 40 deaths, including 14 children and 9 women. Following the attack, Israel was once again reprimanded by the entire international community. 17 countries, including the USA, shared an appeal asking Israel to “make all final compromises necessary to conclude the agreement on the basis of US President Joe Biden’s plan”. Spain has joined the trial opened by the International Court of Justice initiated by South Africa, which accuses Israel of violating the 1948 United Nations Convention on Genocide. Therefore the UN intends to include Israel (along with Hamas and Islamic Jihad) on the ‘black list’ of countries and groups that violate children’s rights in war zones.

Today, after the release of the hostages, the reaction of the international community was not homogeneous. Of particular note are the very different statements by American President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron, together today in Paris for Biden’s state visit to France. If Macron welcomed the news of the rescue of the hostages, but then focused on the Palestinian victims and the need for a ceasefire as soon as possible, Biden reiterated that the “US will not stop working until all the hostages return home and a ceasefire is reached ”, without focusing on the Palestinian victims. From the USA, American national security advisor Jake Sullivan confirms that “the United States supports all efforts aimed at ensuring the release of the hostages still held by Hamas, including American citizens”. Statements similar to that of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who on X defined the release of the hostages as “an important sign of hope”. On the other side, that of Macron, the EU High Representative Josep Borrell underlines “another massacre of civilians” and strongly condemns “the bloodbath that must end immediately.” “The US three-phase plan is the way forward for a lasting ceasefire and an end to the killings” writes Borrell on X.

However, as the Wall Street Journal observes, Israel’s success has cast “a cloud over the Biden administration’s pressure to reach a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.” The work that awaits US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who will be back in the Middle East from Monday – for the eighth time since the beginning of the conflict – to try to reach an agreement between the two sides, will perhaps be even more complex.