Prices rising for gas in Europe due to the greater demand recorded in Egypt. This is what Goldman Sachs analysts predict, according to which the price could exceed 35 euros per MWh at the Amsterdam TTF in the summer and reach up to 80 next winter.
In fact, the growth in demand for gas in China continues to satisfy industrial consumption, but the new entity that can destabilize the European market is Egypt. According to Goldman Sachs analysts, in fact, the African country has been experiencing a supply deficit since last summer which is generating lower exports of LNG (liquefied natural gas) to the benefit of domestic consumption. A phenomenon that goes beyond estimates and which culminates in the fact that from the end of June a regasification plant will be operational in Egypt to process imported LNG, transforming it from an exporting country to an importing country capable of absorbing “several cargoes of LNG per month”, to the detriment of European countries.
The possibility that Egyptian LNG demand exceeds expectations, combined with greater Chinese consumption, has consequences for European LNG supplies, which could turn out to be lower than estimates, creating potential critical issues for storage. Hence the possibility that the price of gas at the Amsterdam TTF could range from an average of less than 30 euros per MWh to over 35 euros per MWh. A value, the latter, destined to double next winter, in the event of colder temperatures than normal, with price forecasts between 60 and 80 euros per MWh, against the 38 recorded in the last cold season. Meanwhile, at the Amsterdam TTF, natural gas recorded a drop of 2.25% to 32.92 euros per MWh for July deliveries.
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