These are Areté’s findings on the prices of raisins and sunflower oil
RAISINS
The Turkish raisin market continues to go through a phase of marked inflation. The price of sultana n.9 delivered to Europe has recorded an increase of 6% since the beginning of May, reaching new historic highs of over $3,600/t; +100% compared to the same period in 2023. According to Areté’s analyses, the main bullish driver is confirmed to be the extremely low level of stocks, the result of a particularly disappointing Turkish 23/24 harvest – confirmed at 206,346 t, -36% compared to 22 /23 – and a relatively rigid demand, also due to the limited availability of product from alternative origins. All this, in a still tense and supportive Turkish internal macroeconomic scenario. Further tensions arise from uncertainty over the next 24/25 harvest, with erratic weather representing the main element of risk. The first expectations shared by the Aegean Exporters Union are for a production of 250,000 t, +20% compared to the 23/24 campaign, but -17% compared to the average of the previous five pre-2023/24 campaigns (around 300,000 t ).
SUNFLOWER OIL
Since March, the prices of raw sunflower oil listed at the 5 EU ports have grown by 14%, also driving up the prices of crude (+16%) and refined (+13%) listed in Milan. At this juncture, sunflower oil has lost the strong competitiveness acquired during the current campaign and, after recording a record discount on palm oil of over $150/t at the beginning of April, sunflower oil listed at 5 EU ports is currently returning a premium on the latter of around $20/t. According to Areté’s analyses, growing international demand and the prospects of a slowdown in supply from Ukraine in the coming months are supporting sunflower oil prices. Furthermore, the high levels of drought facing the Black Sea territories, with frosts reported in southern Russia, highlight the danger of a possible deterioration of 24/7 yields for sunflower seed and contribute to keeping international markets tense.
