Today, June 1stmarks the beginning ofmeteorological summer, an anticipated and significant moment in the climate calendar. This date represents a turning point in conditions weather forecastmarking the transition from spring tosummer.
The summer solsticehowever, is a moment of great astronomical and cultural importance, which marks the official beginning ofsummer in the Northern Hemisphere. This yearThe summer solstice will occur at 10.51pm (Italian time) on 20 June 2024an event awaited with great anticipation by many.
During the summer solstice, the Earth reaches the point in its orbit where the tilt of the Earth’s axis is greatest relative to the Sun. This means that the northern hemisphere is directly facing the Sun, receiving the maximum amount of sunlight. Consequently, the June 20, 2024 it will be the longest day of the year in the Northern Hemisphere, with the Sun reaching its highest height in the sky at midday.
Today, with themeteorological summer which, as mentioned, differs from the astronomical summer, we are moving towards a progressive increase in temperatures, with longer and sunnier days. The weather forecast it tends to become more stable, with a lower frequency of precipitation than in spring. This change in conditions meteorological favors outdoor activities, such as trips, excursions and moments of relaxation in the sun.
However, it is important to note that the start ofmeteorological summer does not necessarily mean that the heat intense will occur immediately. The conditions weather forecast they can still vary and there may be cooler days or episodes of instability, especially in the first weeks of the season. Everything follows a pattern, but the weather doesn’t always adapt perfectly to the changing seasons
L’summer 2024 looms like one season of firewith an incessant succession of heat waves Of exceptional intensity. Despite rumors to the contrary, claiming that the summer will be marked by torrid temperatures is alarmism, but in our opinion, with a well-founded assessment and concrete evidence, the the risk of a very hot season is real. In the previous summer, those who predicted peaks above 40°C they were harshly criticized, but the facts proved them right: numerous locations recorded temperatures up to 47°Cshattering historical records of ben 3-4°C.
Our planet is going through a phase of anomalous heating, with the oceans having temperatures significantly above average. North Africa, particularly in the central and southern regions of the Sahara, is plagued by recurring heat waves. In these areas, usually characterized by the heaviest rainfall, temperatures approach 45°Caccompanied by an oppressive humidity level that exceeds 30°C. The resulting heat index is devastating to the human organism.
The Mediterranean remains under close observation. In Italy, spring temperatures are above average, also due to violent temperature changes during the period. April saw alternating exceptional heat waves and periods of intense cold. May was very rainy in Northern Italy, such cold average daily temperatures had not been recorded for over forty years (beginning of the month), with extraordinary snowfalls in the Alps and the northern Apennines. All this is due to the higher than average temperatures of the Earth’s atmosphere and greater humidity caused by increased evaporation. However, it got colder in May 2019.
Statistics confirm this trend: in the last twelve months the average global temperature exceeded historical values, month after month. Mathematical forecasting models weather forecastalthough subject to variations, indicate that summer 2024 will have an average temperature of around 2°C in Italy above the reference standard. We do not know if last year’s extreme temperatures will be repeated or if there will be periods of atmospheric variability with sudden drops and increases in temperature. These are climate assessments, not predictions weather forecast precise.
Heat waves have become increasingly frequent and persistent, affecting the entire Mediterranean basin also 15-20 days consecutive. Ordinary people, fearing having to face another summer like the recent ones, are equipping themselves with air conditioners like never before.
It is important to note that the southern regions, in the summer of 2023, had a less critical atmospheric situation than those of the central-northern regions, where heat waves originating between north-eastern Spain and France hit more often. There, exceptionally powerful anticyclones form which compress the air in the lower layers, overheating it abnormally and bringing temperatures to absurd levels.
Cities such as Paris and London have also recorded record temperatures in the past, respectively 43°C And 40°C, values never measured even in Milan. This highlights the impact of these summer anticyclones, which can also occur during the winter season, raising the freezing point to stratospheric altitudes. High pressure called African, but which heats above all due to an effect called “Dome”.
L’Dome effect of high pressures it’s a phenomenon weather characterized by the presence of a stable high pressure area that creates a “dome” of hot, stagnant air over the affected region. This effect can lead to conditions weather forecast stable, temperatures high temperatures, persistent heat waves and air quality problems. Understand and monitor theDome effect of high pressures it is crucial to predict and address its impacts on society and the surrounding environment.
The water situation is worrying for summer 2024, especially in some southern Italian areas and in Sicily, where it is already very serious. Seasonal forecasts show no signs of change, and there are no signs of extreme atmospheric anomalies like those that miraculously occurred in the summer of 2018 in Sardinia, which brought heavy rainfall, putting an end to a historic drought.
Summer 2024 will be hot, scorching. The average maximum temperature of most Italian cities was once around 30°C in the warmest month, in recent years it seems to have stabilized around 35°C, with a gradual increase in humidity over the course of the season. Heat waves push the temperature to near or above 40°C in some cities, a value now exceeded every year. At our latitudes and with the climate we should have, this can only be defined as scorching hot. Adjectives are a rough indicator, we are not stating that we will have 40°C over all of Italy, but we will tell if the mathematical forecasting models weather forecast they will provide us with clear numbers in this sense. In meteorology, especially in Italy, there is a dispute that turns into an information war aimed at obtaining visibility, but we prefer to base ourselves on concrete data and objective assessments.
