The European elections are almost here. We will have to wait until June 8th and 9th to find out if the consensus trend of recent months will be confirmed or if there will be any surprises. The latest SWG survey shows the Democratic Party growing, 6 points behind FdI which remains first. There remain unknowns about the head-to-head between Lega and FI and the challenge between Avs, Action and the United States of Europe for who will exceed 4%. Here’s what emerged.
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It’s not long until European elections of 8 and 9 June. Less than three weeks and we will be able to find out whether the outcome of the polls will confirm the trends traced so far by the latest polls or whether it will instead reserve some surprises for us. For the moment the trend seems consolidated with the Brothers of Italy first, followed by the Democratic Party and the Five Star Movement. However, several unknowns remain. The first is that which concerns the head-to-head between Lega and Forza Italia who are racing to grab the position of second majority party, another is that of which of the smaller forces will manage to overcome the 4% threshold and thus enter to the EU Parliament. Let’s see what emerged in the latest survey carried out by Swg.
Pd rises to 21%: it is now 6 points away from FdI which remains first
Brothers of Italy remains stable in the lead, at 27%, recording a +0.2%. No major upheavals are expected for Giorgia Meloni’s party: having eliminated the possibility of exceeding the 30% threshold, FdI aims to confirm the result achieved in the previous elections when the prime minister obtained 26%. On the other hand the Democratic party it does not seem to represent a real threat to the consensus of the Brothers of Italy. In fact, the Dems stop six points away from the Melonians. It is also true, however, that in recent weeks Elly Schlein’s party has closed the gap with FdI, establishing itself firmly above the 20% mark. At the moment with a growth of half a point in a week, the Democratic Party is at 21%.
Occupying the position of second opposition party is the 5 Star Movement which however recorded a decline of 0.5% and fell to 15.7%. In any case, for Giuseppe Conte’s party, the only one not to be part of any of the 7 European families, a confirmation or possible overcoming of the result obtained in the 2022 elections (15.6%) would still be welcomed as an outcome positive.
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Returning to the centre-right however, we will have to wait until the last moment to understand who will prevail in the challenge entirely internal to the majority between Forza Italia And League. The two are competing for the position of second coalition partner and if initially the Azzurri’s overtaking in the Carroccio seemed to have consolidated, now it is neck and neck again. At the moment the League with -0.3% is given at 8.3% while Antonio Tajani’s party, in agreement with Noi Moderati, is at 8.4% (+0.1%). However, the deputy prime minister and foreign minister has never made a secret of his desire to reach double figures, thus definitively overtaking Matteo Salvini’s party.
Between Avs, Action and the United States of Europe there is a challenge of around 4%
The competition continues between the smaller political forces for who will be able to earn a pass to Brussels by exceeding the threshold required to elect their representatives to the EU Parliament. Greens-Left Alliance with +0.2% it is the party that currently obtains the best result, at 4.6%, followed by United States of Europe. The purpose list signed by Emma Bonino and Matteo Renzi, despite having received a score lower than the sum of the consensus of the individual parties, still remains above and is given at 4.4% (-0.2%). Action, instead it seems to be the one most at risk for now. The Carlo Calenda party lost 0.2% in the last week and dropped to 4.2%, getting dangerously close to the threshold. However, they remain outside Peace, Earth and Dignity by Michele Santoro (2.4%), Freedom by Cateno De Luca (at 2.2%) e Popular alternative (at 1%).
