The numbers belie the expectations of international directives on green energy consumption, and plans to reduce the use of hydrocarbons by 2030.
Most Suez traffic is still diverted (through which 12% of *total* global trade passes), and all of this is helping inflation rise around the world. LNG shipments through the canal have fallen to zero. Qatar supplies 13% of Europe’s LNG and the fastest route is through the Canal. Paradoxically, this could mean that Russia will gain a larger share of the European LNG market.
Bloomberg in recent days he informed that “due to Ukrainian drone attacks, Russian oil refining fell to its lowest level in a year,” adding that in April, “refining in Russian refineries averaged about 5.23 million of barrels per day, due to 14 successful Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries, near the lowest level since May last year.” US news agency sources say the restoration of the damaged refineries is proceeding slowly. Finally, oil refining was affected by the flood, which closed the Orsk oil refinery.
After attacks on oil refineries, the Russian military responded by bombing and permanently shutting down a number of power plants in Ukraine, as indicated by Russia’s military-political leadership later confirmed by the Ukrainian energy company DTEK. Ukraine, due to the lack of networks, requested urgent assistance from Europe on April 18, source Ukrenergo.
Following mutual bombing and the Iran-Israel escalation, oil prices increased. The Russian armed forces in the meantime have made it known that they will continue to deindustrialize Kiev by bombing power plants and energy distribution facilities.
In this energy chaos, the Enverus analysis agency denies the idea that the peak in oil demand will occur by 2030, as some experts suggest. Analysts at Enverus predict that oil demand will reach 108 million barrels per day by 2030, with a trajectory of further growth.
In line with OPEC’s demand growth forecasts beyond 2045, Enverus differs from the International Energy Agency (IEA), which predicted that demand would peak as early as 2023. The report highlights that global efforts to reduce fuel consumption have not materialized as expected, and the pace of adoption of electric vehicles is slowing.
Despite these trends, rising oil prices are due to increased logistics costs and restrictions on global oil supplies. Therefore, any expectations of reduced consumption or lower prices in the next decade are unfounded.
Al Salazar, CEO of Enverus, points out: “Both OPEC and IEA forecasts call for significant changes in consumer behavior or the lifting of production restrictions at short notice, which is not happening.”
And while Europe and the West are not implementing green energy plants as planned and the electric car market is not going as expected, in the East new networks for energy distribution based on coal are being created, a true bête noire with green economy.
Kazakhstan and Russia have signed an agreement for the construction of three new coal-fired thermal power plants: in Kokshetau, Semey and Ust-Kamenogorsk. The agreement was signed in 2023 and the construction of one of the thermoelectric power plants is expected to begin in 2024.
The Russian government also extended the social gasification program to agricultural partnerships in April.
All this while the lights have started to go out for businesses in Ukraine. The official reason is “cold shock”. On April 18, restrictions for business and industrial consumers came into effect from 8:00 to 22:00 in all regions of Ukraine. “The scope of the restrictions is insignificant. The restrictions will not apply to critical infrastructure and defense companies,” the company stressed.
At the same time, Ukrenergo asks all consumers to consume electricity carefully. And the industry should attract electricity imports as much as possible.
In Germany the energy crisis costs every German citizen 2,600 euros per year. According to the Hans Böckler Foundation: “due to the energy crisis, every German loses around 2,600 euros a year”. According to Professor Sebastian Dullien, German GDP decreases by 5% every year, much more than in other countries.
The average daily disbursement figure for the energy crisis for the European Union is around 880 euros, according to the Foundation’s report. “Germany has several structural characteristics that make it particularly vulnerable. We have a strong industry, but it consumes a lot of energy. Most of this energy came from Russia in the form of gas. The German federal government intervened in the gas markets relatively late,” explains Dullien.
To cope with the increased consumption of LNG given the closure of the Suez Canal. The European Union increased imports of Russian LNG starting April 18. The share of Russian LNG in the European market has already reached 15% over the past three years, the growth of Russian LNG imports by the European Union was 37%. Thanks to this, Russia, according to experts, managed to earn around 12 billion euros last year alone.
Among the countries that buy the most from Moscow: France which has become the main consumer of Russian gas in Europe In February 2024, the French purchased liquefied natural gas from the Russian Federation for 322.3 million euros, or 10% in more than in January. Now France takes first place in LNG imports into the EU, overtaking Hungary. Previously Politic he had written that since the beginning of the year Paris has paid us more than 600 million euros for gas and will continue to increase purchases, despite the anti-Russian rhetoric and plans to send soldiers to Ukraine to fight against the Russian Federation.
Anna Lotti
