«We are facing an emergency that involves the entire human species. We can survive, but to do so will require a planned and well-organized migration on a planetary scale.” Gaia Vince is a writer and journalist, with British and Australian citizenship, of Hungarian origin. She and was the first woman to win the Royal Society prize for scientific books in 2015. In her latest essay, The nomad century, how to survive the climate disaster (Bollati Boringhieri), she talks about future scenarios. Gaia Vince will be on Saturday 20th at 9pm on the stage of the Rome Science Festival, at the Auditorium Parco della Musica, to talk with Marco Cattaneo about how to manage the climate emergency.
How was “The Nomadic Century” born?
«It gives a sense of frustration, because for too long the narrative on climate change has been governed by the urgency of mitigating its effects, and of maintaining an increase of 1.5 degrees. And instead we also need to talk about how to adapt to this situation.”
You write precisely that the human race has always chosen to migrate, and that this is the key to its success. Why?
«Humans emerged in Africa together with other species, all resident in the rainforest. We, on the other hand, have spread on a global scale, in any environment. We are in Antarctica as in the International Space Station, in deserts and in Arctic ice. The success of human beings derives precisely from these migrations, from this diversity of genes, cultures and languages. Species compete to survive, but to achieve their goals they must cooperate. Especially humans.”
So are we nomads by definition?
«Whoever collaborates the most gets the best. This collaboration isn’t just based on groups sharing the same genes. We have seen it in ants and bees, examples of very collaborative societies. But these are, essentially, clones of the same individuals. Instead, humans continually cooperate with strangers. This is the secret of our strength. Migration has always been a survival technique in the presence of danger.”
Do you think we need to start preparing for the worst, for when temperatures rise dramatically?
«Perhaps we will even exceed two degrees over the next two years. And by 2100 we should be 3-4 degrees higher than the average temperature before the industrial revolution. Many of the world’s most populous areas will become unlivable.”
Italy too?
«Of course, in Italy there was the flood in Emilia Romagna, there were droughts and fires, the South is depopulating. Italy is interesting, because it represents a microcosm of what we can expect in the coming years, of how vulnerable we are. There is already a crisis in the production of wine, oil and wheat. If you are unable to obtain food from the rest of the world, you risk a famine.”
So will the North of the world be a destination for new migrants?
«We can see what the projections are in terms of livability. And we see that there are many more hospitable areas in the Far North. Cities in this area will become much more densely populated, as is already happening in Canada. We will also have to create new cities and adapt to population movements. And look for different types of agriculture, in increasingly arid or flood-prone areas. And when we talk about migration, it will be about movements not only of families, but also of resources. It will be the whole of humanity, not just individuals, who will head north.”
So, will a city as microscopic as Nuuk, the largest center of Greenland, become a megalopolis?
«The Arctic will be a big growth area. And Greenland is interesting because it is very rich in minerals, energy production and fisheries. And it is also strategically important: it is a hinge between America, Asia and Europe.”
Who are the “four horsemen of the Apocalypse”, as you write?
«The climate drivers that will push people to migrate. They are fire, heat, drought and floods. They are already displacing tens of millions of people. Have you seen the ruling of the European Court of Human Rights on Switzerland? He took the side of those who argued that their government was not doing enough about climate change, arguing that their human rights were being violated. There are areas of the world, in Asia and South America, where farmers work at night because it is too hot during the day. At the moment most migrations take place within national borders, but soon they will have to move beyond the border too.”
How to face such a prospect?
“We need to think completely differently about human movements and national borders. We must think that it is normal to move in search of security. Instead of thinking about leaving everyone outside your borders, which doesn’t work, we need to think of systems to regulate this situation. In economic terms, with pragmatism and rationality. Think about this change in terms of opportunities for economic growth and put in place policies that avoid conflicts.”
© ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
Read the full article at
The messenger
Tags: nomads due climate disasters
