After Thursday night’s disastrous debate, in which US President Joe Biden appeared frail and unclear, and amplified all the concerns about his old age, there has been talk in the media and in US politics of the possibility that Biden might withdraw from the election, to make way for a younger candidate who is more likely to win against Donald Trump.
The possibility of replacing Joe Biden in the race is very controversial: political analysts disagree on whether changing a candidate a few months before the November elections could improve the Democratic Party’s chances of victory or not. In any case, for the change to happen it is necessary for Biden himself to withdraw, because having won the Democratic primaries no one can replace him against his will. Biden has already said that he does not intend to do so: but after the debate against Trump it is likely that a discussion will open in the Democratic Party and in the country on the opportunity of his withdrawal, and that in the coming weeks the president will be subject to increasing pressure.
In the media, the pressure has already begun. All US newspapers and TV stations have unanimously acknowledged that Joe Biden lost the debate against Trump, and that the president has failed to reassure voters that his age (Biden is 81) is not an impediment to his role as president. The clearest position – and also the most notable, given the importance of the newspaper – was that of New York Times, who published an editorial titled “To serve his country, Joe Biden should retire.” Among other things, the article states:
At Thursday’s debate, the president had to convince the American public that he could meet the unique challenges of the job he is seeking to hold for another four years. But voters couldn’t help but see what was clear to everyone: Biden is not the man he was four years ago.
Always on New York Timesalmost all of the most important commentators wrote articles between Friday and Saturday arguing that Joe Biden should withdraw from the elections.
Other newspapers were less clear-cut, for example the Washington Post In an editorial, he wrote that the Democratic Party should not “panic,” especially because “a Biden withdrawal would not guarantee a victory in November.” On the contrary, it could amplify divisions within the Democratic Party, and the candidate chosen to replace him could also end up being weak and incapable of beating Donald Trump.
“Panic” is a word that is used a lot these days in the American progressive environment. It is the title of the magazine cover Time just released, and it is the word most used by numerous background stories published after the debate to describe the state of mind of many representatives and voters of the Democratic Party.
Formally, the Democratic Party continues to stand united behind Joe Biden. Many prominent Democrats, in the hours after the debate, declared that their support remains solid and that Joe Biden is the best possible candidate for the party. These include former President Barack Obama, who wrote on social media that “bad debate nights happen,” former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and California Governor Gavin Newsom, who among other things is indicated by many as a possible replacement for Biden.
On an informal level, however, the debate with Trump has generated enormous doubts within the party as to whether Biden is the right candidate to win the elections.
In these two days, American newspapers have published many articles containing anonymous quotes (i.e. in which the person interviewed did not want his name to be made public) from members of the Democratic Party who doubt Biden’s abilities, and who ask for his withdrawal, or at least that a discussion opens within the party on what to do. An anonymous party member, speaking to the New York Times, said: «Parties exist to win. The man who was on stage with Trump cannot win. So far, fear of Trump has stifled criticism of Biden. Now that same fear will fuel calls for him to withdraw.”
However, analysts are torn about what the consequences for the election would be if Biden were to withdraw a few months before the vote. First of all, because there are no precedents, and the few comparable cases have not gone well for the party that changed candidates during the race. The most notable case is that of President Lyndon Johnson, who initially said he would run for a second term but then withdrew in March 1968, the year of the election. The Democratic Convention that year, in which Johnson’s replacement was supposed to be chosen, was chaotic: the party split into factions and in the end the chosen candidate, Hubert Humphrey, was weak and without adequate support, and lost the election to the Republican Richard Nixon.
The risk that many see in Biden’s withdrawal is that the same thing will happen. If Biden were to withdraw, it would be up to the delegates nominated at the Democratic Convention scheduled between August 19 and 22 to decide who to choose as the party’s candidate. But the possibilities of divisions and uncertainties are very high. Added to this is the fact that the person who should be Biden’s natural replacement, Vice President Kamala Harris, is also seen as unpopular and unsuitable to beat Donald Trump. The risk, therefore, is that a Biden withdrawal could produce a replacement equally inadequate to win the elections.
– Read also: Could Joe Biden be replaced?
