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Italian GDP is expected to grow by1% In the 2024 and of the1.1% In the 2025in moderate acceleration compared to 2023, writes theIstat in the prospects for the Italian economy 2024-25. In the April Def the trend estimate is +1% this year and +1.2% the next.
In 2024, the increase in GDP would be supported by the contribution of both domestic demand net of inventories and net foreign demand (+0.7 percentage points for both), with a contribution from inventories still negative (-0.4). In 2025, the growth of the Italian economy would instead be driven mainly by domestic demand (+0.9).
Employment growing in line with GDP
For gross fixed investments, a deceleration trend is expected over the two-year period (+1.5% and +1.2% in 2024 and 2025 respectively, from +4.7% in 2023), determined by the lack of fiscal incentives for construction, which will be compensated both by the effects of the implementation of the measures envisaged by the Pnrr and by the reduction in interest rates. Employment – measured in terms of work units – will grow in line with that of GDP (+0.9% in 2024 and +1.0% in 2025) which will be accompanied by a decline in the unemployment rate (7 .1% this year and 7.0% in 2025).
Inflation towards gradual return to ECB target
For the next few months, a gradual return to inflation rates close to the ECB’s targets is expected. This dynamic will determine a strong deceleration in the spending deflator of resident families for 2024 (+1.6% from +5.2% in 2023) which will be followed by a moderate increase in 2025 (+2.0%). The forecast scenario remains characterized by the persistence of high uncertainty in the international framework, determined by the evolution of geo-political tensions.
