Foligno Runoff, De Luca (M5S): “We are a reliable force”

The study of electoral flows which would certify that Masciotti’s defeat in Foligno can be attributed to the electoral behavior of the 5 Star voters, who would not return to vote in the first round, caused a sensation and discussion. And so the regional councilor Thomas De Luca, who is also the regional contact for the 5 Star Movement, intervenes to clarify.

“We are forced to note the absolutely instrumental use of some evaluations on the flow of votes in the administrative elections relating to the municipality of Foligno, with the sole aim of targeting the thousands of voters of the 5 Star Movement. Accusations based, moreover, on unreliable estimation parameters, especially on a small sample such as the number of sections of the municipality of Foligno and accompanied by paradoxical errors and typos reported in the tables.

Mistakes

De Luca cites some errors: “in table 4, the one relating to the run-off, the M5S votes are absurdly attributed to 720 “not voting” (51%), 420 to Zuccarini (30%) and only 270 to Masciotti (19%). Scrolling down, the same distribution in percentage terms attributes 40% to Masciotti, 33.9% to “not voting” and 25% to Zuccarini. Secondly, the sum of the votes does not correspond to the number of 1360 votes attributed to the Movement and published on the ministerial portal Eligendo but is 1410. A further error that attributes 50 votes from other lists by adding them to those of the Movement. Against logic and common sense, Foligno also becomes an international case study. In table 3, the one relating to the European-municipal flows, it is stated that 83.2% of the 2640 voters who cast a vote for the Movement in the European elections voted for Mauro Masciotti in the administrative elections and for the remaining 16.8% Presilla or Finamonti. None of the over 2 thousand voters would have cast a vote for Zuccarini. The same voters who two weeks earlier had already chosen to vote for Mauro Masciotti, with an electoral campaign that saw the 5 Star Movement at the forefront and brought the candidate to 27 votes from victory, would have gone crazy and moved en masse to Zuccarini. Something out of a 1950s American sci-fi movie like “Invasion of the Body Snatchers”.

“It also appears extremely paradoxical that as many as 100% of the voters who voted for Finamonti in the first round returned en masse to vote for Masciotti in the second round without missing a beat while a third of those from the Movement would have stayed at home.”

“Unbalanced statements”

“In the face of extremely unbalanced and tendentious statements aimed at attributing to the voters of the Five Star Movement the blame for the defeat of Mauro Masciotti, a candidate that we strongly wanted and supported by exposing ourselves fully and without reservations, the study does not report any methodological notes. It is not known which model of flow estimation was used, whether it was carried out on the basis of particular correlations between the first and second rounds or whether they were parameterized with the results of previous elections. The study does not even provide the confidence intervals of the various estimates or the margins of error. What we can say with certainty is that we reject these superficial and childish attempts to discredit the Movement. The facts attest to the reliability of a political force that has always demonstrated loyalty by always and in any case honoring the commitments made”.