Sudden braking of Italian footwear sector in the first quarter of 2024, which recorded a contraction in both exports (-9.7% in value and -10.3% in pairs) and turnover (-10.1%). The scenario emerges from the latest report produced by the Confindustria Moda Study Center for Assocalzaturifici, which also highlights a decline in purchases by Italian families (-1.6% in quantity and -0.7% in spending).
“2023 closed with substantial stability in turnover, 14.58 billion euros, (+0.6% on 2022) and in exports, although with volumes already suffering, – explains Giovanna Ceolini, president of Assocalzaturifici – at the start of 2024, the slowdown that began in the second half of last year continued for the footwear sector, which has now become even more marked, with a strong reduction in orders and production activity (the Istat index of industrial production marks a – in the first 3 months 20.5%). The usual survey conducted in May among our members highlighted a decline in turnover for 68% of the sample, with a non-negligible portion of Members (18%) reporting a contraction of even more than -20%. Furthermore, the sentiment of entrepreneurs does not show confidence: only 11% are confident in an improvement in the economic trend in the second quarter, which according to the forecasts of those interviewed is destined to close with a drop in turnover of around -7.4% on April-June 2023. Over 80% expect a turnaround no earlier than 2025”.
The report shows how, as regards exports (which account for 85% of national production), 51.9 million pairs were sold in the first quarter of 2024 (6 million less than in the same months last year), for 3.17 billion euros. After a stable January (at least in terms of value: +1.4%), the trend became more penalizing in February (-6.2%), until it recorded a collapse in the order of -20% in March , both in value and in pairs. The analysis by product type shows declines, both in quantity and value, for all sectors. In particular, footwear with leather uppers, first in importance with an incidence of 65% on foreign sales in value, marks -8.6% in volume with -7% in value for the first 3 months of 2023. Among the destinations, as already in 2023, the European Union markets present less unfavorable trends (-4.1% in value) than those outside the EU (down by -15% overall). In the EU, France and Spain, despite decreasing in quantity, are growing in value (+1.7% and +8.5% respectively on the first quarter of 2023). France, whose figures also include the return flows of production carried out in Italy on behalf of third parties for the transalpine luxury brands, confirmed itself in first place among the destinations, both in terms of value and volumes (down by -4.3 %). Setbacks of over -10% for exports to Germany and -20% in value (with -37.6% in quantity) for Belgium. Outside the EU, what stands out first of all is the further halving (-53.4%, with -36.7% in volume) of direct flows to Switzerland, which has always been the traditional logistics-distribution hub of fashion multinationals, which fell to fourth place among destinations in value : much of the transit in Swiss hubs has been replaced by direct shipments to final markets. The growth of exports in value towards the Far East (+4.3%) and the Middle East (+14.1%) – where the presence of designer labels is traditionally stronger – are the only macro areas to experience an increase compared to 2023, it must also be read in light of these dynamics. In the Far East, in particular, China (+10.8% in value and +17.8% in quantity) and Hong Kong (+26% in value and +4.9% in volume, which however remains distant from the 2019 pre-Covid). Japan holds its own (-0.9%, with +3.1% in quantity), while South Korea records sharp declines (in the order of -30%). In the Middle East, the United Arab Emirates grew by +34.4% in value, despite losing -4.5% in volume. In the American continent, similar reductions in value affected both the United States (-8.8%) and Canada (-7.2%). Still unrewarding performances in the United Kingdom (-6.1% in value). Regarding the countries of the former Soviet bloc, there was a decline in sales in Russia (-22.4% in value and -17.8% in pairs), while Ukraine recovered in value (+21%), but in the face of a decline of -11% in volume. However, the favorable trend continues in Kazakhstan (+4.8% in value and +12.2% in quantity). The data relating to exports of footwear and parts by region show negative signs for all the main areas, with rare exceptions. However, when reading these figures, the distortions linked to the possible discrepancy between the province/region of production and that of shipping must be considered. In the first quarter only Emilia-Romagna and Piedmont showed a positive trend. In both cases, however, both the +0.3% of the former (due to the exploit of Piacenza, which doubled the flows compared to January-March 2023, +100.7%) and the more sustained +23.9 % of the second (obtained thanks to +57.2% of Novara and +23.7% of Vercelli) are linked to the presence in the area, as anticipated, of significant logistics facilities that ship goods produced elsewhere abroad.
Rather in line with the national average, the decline in exports from Lombardy (-10.8% on the first 3 months of 2023), which leads the ranking by region ahead of Veneto (-14.8%, which alone covers 40 % of flows to France, down by -6.9% but still the leading regional destination) and to Tuscany (-19.7%, which recorded a collapse of -82% in direct flows to Switzerland). Marche comes in fourth place (-8.9% overall, with -7.7% in Fermo, -5% in Macerata and a decidedly heavier decline for Ascoli Piceno, which lost -21.7%). Puglia (seventh) and Campania (eighth) also show decreases, but quite limited (-5.9% and -2.9% respectively). Finally, regarding the demographics of companies, at the end of March the number of active companies fell in Italy to 3,490 (with a negative balance of -74 units, between industry and craftsmanship, compared to December 2023, equal to -2.1% ), accompanied by a decrease in employees of -0.8%.
