Florence, 18 June 2024 – Population decline, climate risks and productivity. These are three structural challenges to be faced in Tuscany according to Bankitalia, which in its latest report on the economy highlights «weak prospects for 2024, with risks from geopolitical tensions.” There are some positive signs, highlighted the director of the Florence branch of the Bank of Italy, Vito Barone, but nothing more than a stabilization of the economy can be expected. The slight recovery of the purchasing poweror by families, with inflation going up, according to estimates, from 5.6% last year to 1.2% in 2024. In the meantime, wages have also risen slightly and therefore consumption should rise, which in 2023 they fell back to +1.4% against +6.7% in 2022. «For the rest – underlined Barone – the dynamics are similar to those of 2023. However, it must be said that the system, although small, appears resilient.”
Despite the decrease in turnover and production (-3.5% in 2023) small businesses had significant revenues, therefore, the director of Bankitalia pointed out, «the profitability holds and the banking system to some extent has been able to better price credit risk, so much so that credit quality remains at more than acceptable levels. On this front there are some signs of worsening, but it is nothing worrying at this moment.”
2023 GDP at 0.6% versus 5.9% in 2022
2023 ended with a GDP growth of 0.6%, lower than the national 0.9% and well below the +5.9% recorded in Tuscany in 2022. Domestic demand was weak, penalized by geopolitical uncertainty, loss of purchasing power and restrictive monetary policies. The exports they held up thanks to the pharmaceutical and mechanical sectors, while fashion suffered a double-digit decline. The unemployment rate fell to 5.3%, reaching historic lows, but the increase in employment was supported above all by the increase in foreign workers, which compensated for the decline in Italian employment. Looking to the future, demographic decline will lead to a reduction in the workforce by 2042 200 thousand units. Wages in Tuscany remain lower than the national average, due to the prevalence of sectors such as tourism, characterized by lower wages.
Sales: loss of value for properties in areas with high hydrogeological risk
In 2023, i mortgages disbursed decreased by 30%, with only 2.8 billion euros granted, due to high prices and high interest rates. The Bank of Italy also analyzed the trend in property prices in areas a hydrogeological risk. Homes near areas affected by disasters depreciated, with an estimated loss of 80 euros per square meterequal to 3.6% of the median value.
