Rome, 17 June 2024 – It is Elizabethin Bellonidiplomat from 2021 at the head of the secret services, the candidate of Giorgia Meloni for the place in the sun in the Europe that counts. It is no coincidence that the work of the Palazzo Chigi manager on the occasion of the G7 of Borgo Egnazia has been widely cited and promoted also in the press. Precisely in consideration of diplomatic skills and the strict Atlantic loyalty demonstrated by the Italian government on the occasion not only of the G7, but on the Russian-Ukrainian war and in summits and bilateral agreements, the place the prime minister looks to for Belloni is that of High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security.
Ursula von der Leyen attempts an encore presidency of the commission
The job sees him in pole position in the forecasts the Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, with an anti-Russian function. But it seems to perfectly comply with the request for recognition of the “role that Italy deserves in terms of skills and commissioners” made by Meloni. Even to the extent that it is closely linked to NATO loyalty, expressly desired by the prime minister, but which Europe is still wary of, especially in relation to the Northern League allies.
There were rumors that Italy wanted an economic commissioner with a fat wallet next Paolo Gentiloni at Economy. But there aren’t many figures to spend. Antonio Tajani he would certainly have the right profile, but he has already withdrawn from European roles. And also the name of Raffaele Fitto is increasingly losing share. Belloni High Representative is therefore the best card. In the alternative, Meloni will try to obtain another commissioner’s office for the diplomat with the vice presidency.
It will begin to be discussed at the informal dinner of the heads of state and government of this evening in Brussels. Then the decisions, starting from the indication of the candidacy for the presidency of the Commission, should be formalized in Council of 27 and 28 June. At least this would be the intention of French President Macron and German Chancellor Scholz who, together with Spanish Prime Minister Sancez, also fulfills the role of emissary of the PSE; while for the EPP they are dealing with the Polish Prime Minister Tusk and the Greek Mitsotakis.
An acceleration that should lead to confirmation by Ursula von der Leyen, with Mitsotaskis as the main outsider, to then go to the vote of parliament in the session that opens on 16 July. Considering the physiological presence of 10% of snipers, the 400 votes of the EPP, PSE and liberals do not guarantee a majority for von der Leyen. Hence the need to extend to the left to a part of the greens and to the right to Meloni’s conservatives.
However, the timing risks messing up the games, particularly for the two opponents Macron and Meloni. Why the French legislative elections take place on 30 June and 7 July, which could be won by the Rassemblemant national of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardaella. Macron all the more wants to continue, given that he will still represent France until 2027. But a victory for the right could suggest that the People’s Party should begin to ease relations. If instead Meloni rushed to choose and vote for von der Leyen but then Le Pen were to win in France, the Italian prime minister would risk remaining isolated among the conservatives as a crutch for the Commission, with the Pis allies ready to give in to the sirens of Orban and Le Pen for a single right-wing group with the Identities. Although in reality the leader of the RN would need to hurry to gain credibility in Europe on the basis of Meloni.
