Very positive April for Italian exports. Positive first of all because exports increased (compared to April 2023) by 10.7 percent and 2.3 percent compared to March 2024, absorbing the negative trend (-2.8%) of the first quarter of 2024. Positive because the trade balance (the difference between the value of exports and imports) was 4.8 billion euros, while in April 2023 it was positive but of just 362 million (confirming the true vocation of Italian foreign trade, which has always been in positive territory). Positive because after a year of uninterrupted decline, growth involves all the main partner countries, including – very important for the interconnections between the two countries – Germany. And, finally, because in April Italian exports were largely driven by pharmaceutical products, a sector in which Campania – as seen in the recent very positive data for the first quarter – plays a leading role.
The monthly increase in exports is greater for non-EU countries (+3.8%), compared to those of the EU area (+0.8%). Imports recorded a relatively limited trend growth in value (+1.4%), the synthesis of an increase in the EU area (+5.4%) and a contraction in the non-EU area (-3.5%) ; in volume, imports increased by 2.5%. On an annual basis, the countries that provide the greatest contributions to the increase in national exports are: United Kingdom (+42.3%), Türkiye (+70.6%), Spain (+12.7%), Belgium (+20.2%), France (+5.2%) and OPEC countries (+18.2%). The energy deficit (-3,787 million) is reduced compared to a year earlier (-5,730 million). The surplus in the trade of non-energy products rises from 6,092 million in April 2023 to 8,595 million in April 2024. In the month of April 2024, import prices increased by 0.8% compared to the previous month, while they fell by 1 .8% on an annual basis (it was -3.5% in March).
These are the first signs of recovery, albeit weak, in Germany which were reflected in Italian exports in April: the two economies are so interconnected in the manufacturing industry that their destinies influence each other. The weakness of German consumption, for example, has affected Italian exports of consumer goods, just as the slight increase in German production in the first quarter has positively affected Italian exports, especially in the automotive sector. According to assessments expressed recently in the Italian-German forum of the Italian-German Chamber of Commerce (AHK Italien) and the Leibniz Institute for Economic Research in Halle (IWH) «the recovery will accelerate from autumn, just as private consumption will increase», just as inflation will decrease significantly only towards the end of the year.
The tariff war with China weighs on everything and «companies in the automotive sector would be particularly affected, also through European tariffs on vehicles produced in China by German companies for the European market. Under such conditions, the chances of expanding German exports would be slim.”
The Campania
Although these are general data, it can still be said that due to the weight that the pharmaceutical sector has assumed in the economy and exports of Campania, the Italian trend is influenced by Campania exports: the region represents 15% of product exports pharmaceuticals, much of which originated in the plant Novartis Of Torre Annunziata whose forecasts indicate further growth throughout 2024.
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