by Daniele Bovi
Fare Perugia-Forza Italia and Lega among the national parties, Progetto Perugia and Anima Perugia among the civic ones. These are the symbols for which the impact of the preferences collected on the overall result of Saturday and Sunday was greatest, even if not all cases are the same.
The index To understand this, it is necessary to calculate the preference index, i.e. an analytical tool that represents the relationship between the preferences expressed and those potentially expressible (i.e. double the votes obtained by the list, given that voters can attribute a maximum of two). The result goes from zero to one, i.e. from the minimum to the maximum possible. Interesting numbers because they allow us to understand how many voters, on average, do not simply tick the symbol on the list but also indicate a preference; a sort of revealer of how much of the result of a party or a civic body – beyond the absolute figure – can be attributed to the “strength” of the candidates.
THE ANALYSIS: THE TIGHTEST MATCH EVER
PERUGIA, WHAT THE RESULTS OF THE LAST 15 YEARS SAY
List factor Often, when analyzing the preferences given to candidates, we focus on those who were able to obtain more, which represents a partial point of view because it does not allow us to understand the real “strength” of the team as a whole, the ability to drain consensus among citizens, the degree of “dependence” of the party or civic list on the candidates and so on. The choice of the team at the municipal elections is one of the factors that can decisively influence the overall result of a list and a candidate for mayor (and the results of the weekend especially in some neighborhoods further demonstrate this), and a way to understand how it could have had an impact is to go and see how many preferences were expressed by the voters.
PERUGIA, THE VOTE OF THE NEIGHBORHOODS: THE ANALYSIS
THE MAP: VOTERS IN PERUGIA DISTRICT BY DISTRICT
Parties Starting from the national acronyms, at the top is the list of the outgoing mayor Andrea Romizi, Fare-Perugia Forza Italia which, as shown in the graph of Umbria24, has an index of 0.48; translated, the list “depends” on the candidates for almost half of its votes. The League is further behind (0.4, with the outgoing Merli and Mattioni alone accounting for 40 percent of the total), Avs (0.36), the Pd and FdI paired (0.3), while as often happened in moved to the bottom of the ranking is the M5S with 0.21; party, that of Giuseppe Conte, which suffers from a now atavistic weakness when it comes to administrative issues. In short, especially in the case of Pd and FdI, consensus is above all linked to the strength of the symbol.
THE POLITICAL MAP OF UMBRIA
PERUGIA, HOW MUCH AN ELECTION CAMPAIGN COST
Civics As far as civic elections are concerned, however, as is logical, the candidates represent an even more important element given that the strength of the symbol is not the driving force. In this case, Progetto Perugia is at the top of the ranking with an index of 0.58 but – and this is a figure that explains the collapse compared to 2019 – the two outgoing councilors Edi Cicchi and Leonardo Varasano alone are worth 40% one hundred of the preferences expressed; only 10 candidates out of 32 exceed one hundred. Anima Perugia, on the other hand, one of Vittoria Ferdinandi’s two civics, has an index of 0.49 and Orchestra per la Vittoria of 0.46 but, even in this case, the two outgoing councilors Lucia Maddoli and Fabrizio Croce alone are worth almost 30 percent of the total. Index equal to 0.46 also for Perugia for public health, while Perugia civica gets 0.37, Perugia Merita di Massimo Monni 0.33, Pensa Perugia 0.3 and gradually all the others.
ALL THE PREFERENCES AND THE NEW CITY COUNCILORS
Pink quotas There were almost 80 candidates with 0 preferences, demonstrating the difficulty of many in composing the lists. If voters express two preferences, a man or a woman must be chosen, otherwise the second preference will be cancelled. Gender preference which in this case has not led to an increase in the female quotas in Palazzo dei Priori: regardless of what will happen in the run-off, we are talking about 22 men and 10 women compared to 13 in the previous council.
