The polls are now closed and the counts are almost final. The new European Parliament will be moved further to the right, but not by much compared to the current structure, which should not put the classic government alliance between popular, socialists and liberals at risk. In Brussels there are those who are even convinced that the games on the famous “top jobs”, i.e. the four main EU positions, are already over, with Ursula von der Leyen on her way to reconfirmation as the most prestigious position, that of President of the Commission . But what blows things up is what is happening in the varied universe of the European right, in particular in France and Italy. In this context, there are 5 women in the notebooks of the journalists of the EU bubble. Five women who could shape the near future of Europe.
Von der Leyen
The first is the aforementioned von der Leyen. The “Queen of the Berlaymont”, named after the building which houses the EU executive, seems to have emerged strengthened from the European elections. Her popular party, the EPP, not only triumphed at the polls, but also strengthened its position as kingmaker in Strasbourg. In the European Parliament, the People’s Party have the numbers to be able to deal the cards, choosing from time to time whether to leverage the formal alliance with socialists and liberals (and perhaps greens), or whether to team up with backroom agreements with the right, in particularly with Meloni’s Ecr, as has already happened in recent years. A Eurochamber with variable majorities was the project of Manfred Weber, the German politician who leads the EPP, and the European vote seems to have put all the pieces in place for him, including the weakening of the weight of French President Emmanuel Macron.
von der Leyen’s encore
Precisely Macron’s troubles, dealing with early elections in the hot weeks in which decisions could be made top jobs, could pave the way for von der Leyen: the Transalpine leader had shown reservations about the possibility of a second mandate for the German, and there were rumors that his candidate for leadership of the Commission was Mario Draghi. The collapse of consensus at the European elections, however, does not seem to give him space for his well-known behind-the-scenes political games, such as those which in 2019 led to the election of von der Leyen (to the detriment of Weber, designated by the EPP).
Metsola and Kallas
If the “queen of the Berlaymont” remains as such, the picture of the other important positions in the EU could easily be put together by the end of the month. According to Politico, the current president of Parliament Roberta Metsola, also from the EPP, should be reconfirmed. The liberals could obtain the nomination of the EU High Representative for foreign policy, with the Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, among the greatest supporters of Ukraine. To close the puzzle, the socialist position, that of president of the European Council, which would go to the Portuguese Antonio Costa.
Melons and Le Pen
This scheme, they say in Brussels, could favor rapid negotiations between political forces and EU governments, and avoid long negotiations and tensions within the bloc at a time when Europe needs unity in the face of the war in Ukraine and the risk of find Donald Trump at the helm of the USA in a few months. But the European right is in turmoil, and wants to have its weight in the architecture of EU power. This is why all eyes are on Giorgia Meloni and Marine Le Pen. The Italian leader has on her side the fact of being prime minister, and therefore of having a vote to spend on the table that counts most for deciding the top jobs, that of the European Council. Le Pen wants to exploit the electoral success in the European elections, the possible encore in the early vote in France, and the good relations with Meloni (but also with the Dutchman Geert Wilders) to influence the games in Brussels.
Le Pen can take France: what the polls say
It is not certain, however, that Meloni’s interests coincide too much with those of Le Pen. The Italian prime minister seems inclined to reach an agreement with the sovereignists in the EU Parliament to strengthen the opposition to the popular-socialist-liberal trio, but she does not want to break with the EPP, nor mix with ID, the group of Le Pen and Salvini. If anything, Meloni’s goal is to obtain a powerful commissioner in the new Brussels executive in exchange for support for von der Leyen. In these hours, MEP Nicola Procaccini, co-president of the European Conservatives group, expressed the Italian government’s interest in the post of High Representative of Foreign Policy.
As we were saying, that seat seems destined for the liberals and the Estonian Kallas. It is unlikely that the ECR can aim so high. But Procaccini’s words may hide Meloni’s true objective. In recent weeks there had been insistent talk about the position of Commissioner for Agriculture, for which Minister Francesco Lollobrigida was in the running. But Rome could also focus on the new Defense Commissioner announced by von der Leyen in his programme: a portfolio which, if created ad hoc, could manage the increasingly attractive defense fund, i.e. contracts for weapons and military technologies.
