The latest municipal elections saw a substantial draw between Alessandro Portesani and Andrea Virgilio, the latter trailing by a few hundred votes.
The reduction in the number of voters persists which, compared to the previous administrative round, sees an 8.5% drop in voter turnout (67.19%-58.7%). A worrying figure which could, in the run-off, fall below the 50% threshold, making the perception of representing the majority of voters purely technical but no longer quantitative.
The second consideration concerns the distribution of the vote among the 76 sections into which the city territory is divided reveals, in a plastic way, one’s political orientation developed in recent decades such as to radically modify the political geography of the past.
Alongside the dichotomy between city and countryside, with the former historically inclined towards
progressive camp, in recent times a sort of discrepancy has developed between the center of cities and the areas located on the outskirts. A total reversal of positions compared to the trend recorded in the last century.
The peripheral sector, where the centre-right candidate obtained a majority of support, it constitutes, in fact, the territory once belonging to the former municipality of Due Miglia, aggregated in 1920 to the municipality of Cremona. In electoral terms, those territories, divided into six main neighbourhoods, expressed, as for example in 1920, a “Bulgarian” level consensus towards the socialist candidates; an indication that remained even after the Second World War and in the decades characterized by economic development.
The new neighborhoods that arose in Cremona in those circumstances largely welcomed citizens from the area
from the countryside attracted by the new job opportunities that the larger centers could offer. The
their political orientation was prevalent towards the left-wing groups while the centre
citizen appeared almost unchallenged domination of the moderate parties.
Nowadays the situation has been reversed; the population of suburban neighborhoods is often aged and now expresses a greater propensity towards the moderate vote; the urban-residential conformation itself has significantly changed, combining the initial public housing with a higher profile housing fabric.
The suburbs then suffer and often show real or supposed less attention given to them by city administrations; they are also characterized by the coexistence between people of different origins, a possible cause of tensions,
In in recent electoral rounds the political nature of the outer districts of the city has increasingly oriented towards positions close to the centre-right parties; this political area notoriously suffers from entering cities. Its electoral strength is in fact manifested with higher indices in small towns; its occurrence in provincial capitals or main centers diminishes considerably; even in 2019, on the occasion of the success of the Salvini-led League, the center-right saw its consensus significantly contract within the city walls, perhaps also the result of some stomach aches regarding candidacies. All this penalized the exponent proposed by the centre-right.
Even during the recent elections the same mechanism was proposed again, somewhat toned down. If the centre-right voters had in fact automatically transferred the European vote to the municipal sector, their candidate (Portesani) would have prevailed in the first round. The presence of two teams, led by Maria Vittoria Ceraso and Giovetti, referring to the centre-right area certainly caused considerable damage to the final result achieved by Portesani.
The result achieved especially by Maria Vittoria Ceraso, combined with that of Ferruccio Giovetti, prevented Portesani from distancing his opponent in a more significant way, preventing him from digging an electoral and psychological gap that would be difficult to recover.
In the various sections belonging to the Monteverdi school, as well as in Bagnara or Cavatigozzi, Ceraso achieved brilliant results in competition with the centre-right candidate; in several seats Portesani is significantly ahead while in others he managed to get closer to his opponent.
The amount of support collected by the centre-left candidate compared to the last round
Galimberti reports a reduction in votes spread across almost all the sections present; the focus of attention is paid in particular to the historical strongholds of the progressive camp. In the sections referring to the plexuses of Monteverdi, Itis, Stradivari and in particular Mazzolari, Virgilio sees the considerable number of votes that in the past those areas guaranteed to the center-left dwindle. Even section 41 of Mazzolari, where Galimberti obtained the best result in the 1919 ballot (66.3%), today has a minimum distance between the two candidates. The game at stake is therefore very close and open to any scenario.
The ballot: a real unknown that could be influenced by various factors. The first situation is linked to the temporal aspect of the second round; a very “high” date and therefore conditioned by the diversion that tourist or seaside destinations could exert on a part of the electorate until now discouraged from moving by the meteorological vagaries of this anomalous start to the summer season.
Five years ago between the first and second rounds (9 June) it happened a marked reduction in voter turnout (-11.7%) which penalized the candidate (Malvezzi) intent on overcoming the initial disadvantage. On that occasion the outgoing mayor slightly strengthened his support base; in the second round the gap between the two contenders had more than doubled (1753-3665). The centre-right candidate was successful in only seven city sections; Vacchelli (section 7), Monteverdi (20), S.Ambrogio (30), Aporti (53), Bagnara (62), Boschetto (67) and Maristella (73).
The second unknown at the moment appears to be linked to the possibility of any similarities practice from the teams excluded from the ballot; a possibility, the latter, which, pending an official pronouncement, could, in theory, interest more the centre-right camp. Even if in politics sums are often not a scientific matter but subject to variables that are difficult to manage at a table.
Fabrizio Superti
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