What we present today is the last poll before the European vote. In the last two weeks of the election campaign, the publication of vote estimates is prohibited. It is therefore a snapshot of current intentions, which do not necessarily represent the possible final outcome of the vote. This is for at least three reasons: the first is related to turnout, which could vary depending on the impact of the last weeks of the campaign and therefore affect the results; the second and third are related to a certain randomness of opinions. On one side, more than a quarter of voters choose which party to vote for in the last week before the vote; on the other hand, those who vote for one party in the survey also take other parties into consideration, often from the same coalition, which could lead some voters to change their vote depending on the progress of the electoral campaign. Having made this necessary methodological premise, let’s look at the vote estimates.
Fratelli d’Italia is estimated today at 26.5%, with a net drop of two points compared to April. This decline is linked to a similar decline in the rating of the Prime Minister, whose approval rating drops by three points compared to last month and by five points compared to the highest level since we began testing the European vote. And similar indicators are highlighted for the government. Various elements probably add up to these difficulties, from the difficult situation of state finances highlighted in some cases roughly by Minister Giorgetti, to the increasingly evident differences in the coalition, up to the recent positions on Europe expressed at the Vox conference by Giorgia Meloni which have tarnished the “Europeanist” image that had been built. The fact remains certain that such a result would not fall below the bar set by Meloni herself (26% of the Policies), but if it were confirmed it would not be an exciting performance.
Again in the government area, it is confirmed the good performance of Forza Italia (with Noi Moderati): today at 9.2%, up by 0.6%. Tajani’s direction, his ability to distance himself from the League and keep the bar straight on the moderate and pro-European side continues to pay off. The overtaking of the League is confirmed but with a decreasing gap, since Salvini’s party shows a good increase, of over one point in a month, which brings it to 8.6%. In this case, what probably counted on the one hand were the positions that, as we have often said, Salvini takes when speaking to the “guts” of the voters (like most recently the housing plan), and probably also the related difficulties that we highlighted earlier for Giorgia Meloni .
The Democratic Party is now estimated at 22.5%, the highest result since Secretary Schlein took office, up more than one point in the last month. It is likely that in the face of a lower turnout compared to the political elections, the Democratic Party will record a greater hold among the electorate which stands out for its “Europeanism”. Furthermore, the doubts that seemed to emerge about some candidacies, in particular the more pacifist and refractory ones regarding the sending of weapons to Ukraine (from Marco Tarquinio to Cecilia Strada), seem to have disappeared among the voters. The The party then, as a whole, gave the impression of greater unity than even a few weeks ago, which is particularly welcome by this electorate. Furthermore, the “stomach aches” of the reformist area, although perhaps present, do not find practicable outlets for the party’s voters. And finally Elly Schlein seems to have recently made his campaign more incisive and improved her visibility.
The 5 Star Movement, estimated at 15.4%, still has a small decline: by half a point in the last month, but by two points in the last period. If on the one hand Conte is very present in the campaign (but is not a candidate), on the other hand he often overshadows the “real” candidates. Furthermore, it should be remembered that the M5S has a poorly pro-European electorate and is very concentrated in the South of the country, where participation in the European elections is less strong. It is therefore a party for which the warnings we indicated at the beginning apply, particularly in relation to turnout.
In the end, two parties appear to be able to exceed the 4% threshold, which allows access to the distribution of seats. The first is the Alleanza Verdi Sinistra, estimated at 4.6%, with growth of almost one point in the last month. The campaign conducted, from Ilaria Salis’s candidacy to the environmentalist battles, seems to be paying off. Even if the margin is not sufficient to give the certainty of overcoming, as well as for United States of Europe, strength estimated at 4.1% and down a few decimal points in the last month. Matteo Renzi was particularly visible, less so the other leading candidates, who perhaps should be more present and visible to broaden the spectrum of consensus. Carlo Calenda with Azione is slightly below the bar, today estimated at 3.6%, down 0.2% in the last month. The solitary battle doesn’t seem to be paying off for now. Even in this case, however, there are no certainties, the few decimals that separate from success are not insurmountable.
If this were the scenario, Fratelli d’Italia would almost quadruple its representatives in Europe, going from six to twenty-two; Forza Italia would maintain the same representation (seven MEPs), while the League would collapse from twenty-nine to seven. Among the opposition, the Democratic Party would maintain the same number of MEPs, 19. The M5S would have 13, losing only one, while the Avs would have four representatives and the United States of Europe 3.
This is the state of the art, with all the necessary precautions. We await the conclusion of the electoral campaign and we trust (without much conviction) that we are really talking about Europe, a Europe on the threshold of great (and obligatory) changes that we should not ignore.
