Welcome to Outlook, the Repubblica newsletter that analyzes the economy, finance and international markets.
What I know about financial markets and the economy I learned by working for one of the main stock exchanges on Piazza Affari, the companies that buy and sell securities on the stock exchange for large investors. I took it with me when I became a journalist for La Repubblica where, among other things, I covered investigations and major scandals such as that of Parmalat, helping to unmask its false financial statements. Every Wednesday we will talk about listed and unlisted companies, about characters, institutions, scandals and investigations linked to this world. If you want to write to me, my email is [email protected].
Enjoy the reading
The Superbonus must be reset to zero afterwards Bank of Italy it also says so International Monetary Fund. The words of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and of the Minister of Economy, Giancarlo Giorgetti against the incentive conceived by the Conte II government, and considered today as the main evil of the public finances, have remained just words, because instead of eliminating it they have made it grow to out of proportion.
The largest increase in the Superbonus falls to the Meloni government. As demonstrated by an analysis of theParliamentary Budget Office precisely with the arrival at Palazzo Chigi of the coalition led by Fratelli d’Italia the monthly expenditure on renovations with the initial discount of 110% has passed come on 3.8 billion of October 2022 to 5.7 billion of last May, bringing the overall account of investments eligible for deduction to 117.2 billion euros. Of these well 66 billion are to be attributed to the Meloni government.
The faults in the past, the debts in the future. The UBP put the numbers in black and white, but what Giorgetti should have done and why were explained well first by the Bank of Italy in a hearing at the Finance Commission and then by the Monetary Fund in Article IV of the report annual on our country.
They are two institutions that certainly do not have the electoral interests of the government, which in addition to not having taken effective measures has tried on the one hand to the blame for the Superbonus on previous executives when instead the greatest load, more than 50% of the entire impact, arrived during his stay at Palazzo Chigi and on the other he attempted to place the burden on future executives by spreading the debt over ten years instead of four. A passing the buck from Meloni and Giorgetti, in perfect pre-election style in view of the European elections in June.
The board of the Bank of Italy. In its hearing, the Bank of Italy analyzed the two interventions by the Meloni government on the Superbonus (law decrees 11 and 39), accusing them of having maintained too many exceptions and thus having prolonged the impact on the State’s accounts. And without too much hesitation, Via Nazionale recommends eliminating the Superbonus: “Legislative decree no. 39 represents a necessary step to reduce uncertainty about the costs of the Superbonus; the experience of legislative decree no. 11 of last year would seem to advise against, in order to be effective, relaxations with respect to the original text. If not even the new restrictions were to slow down the accumulation of credits, the only way forward would be the elimination of the Superbonus before its natural expiry at the end of next year.”
The Superbonus did not help the GDP. Moreover, the expansive effect of the Superbonus on GDP is far from confirmed. The trend of investments in housing between 2019 and 2023 grew by 60% with a impact on GDP passed from 4 to 6.4%but the Bank of Italy is quick to say that a quarter of these expenses would have been realized anyway.
The burden on the accounts. Furthermore, the Superbonus had a significant cost equal to 1% of GDP in 2021, 3% in 2022 and 3.7% in 2023, for a total of almost eight points of GDPto which the costs of 2024 and 2025 will be added. And we certainly cannot rely on the estimates and forecasts of Minister Giorgetti who has shown that he does not have the situation under control at all given that in Def 2023 had predicted for the past year an impact of 0.7% then raised to 3.7% with the Def 2024. This reveals that in addition to the generosity of the incentive exceeding what would have been spent (110%) and the original errors of having introduced the possibility of transferring the tax credit without introducing a ceiling on the funds, there is also the inability to monitor the situation .
Ineffective for the environment. Not even the objective of facilitating the green transition was achieved by the Superbonus. “From an environmental point of view, the relationship between costs and benefits – explains the Bank of Italy – is unfavorable compared to other types of intervention”, so much so that it is estimated that the same result in environmental terms could have been achieved with an incentive not of 110%, but of 40%.
The IMF board. The final blow came from the Monetary Fund which in its report on Italy branded the tax discounts linked to the Superbonus as excessive and with a smaller effect than initially expected: “The stimulus to growth deriving from the tax credits for construction housing was probably quite limited with respect to the amount of fiscal resources spentdue to losses in imports, significant discounts on invoices, increased price margins in construction, exclusion of other investments and improper use of public funds.”
And even the Monetary Fund suggests eliminating them. Italy’s problem is the debt, which is too high in relation to GDP, worsened in the future by a deficit above 3%. A zero-cost move to get closer to the objectives requested by the new Stability Pact “can be achieved – writes the IMF – with a modest cost through a more rapid withdrawal of inefficient or temporary measures, including the cessation of subsidies for home renovation and measures to offset high inflation.”
In short, dear Giorgetti, dear Meloni, the Superbonus should not be limited, but eliminated as soon as possible, regardless of the upcoming elections.
