For Unioncamere, in view of the second quarter it is confident in the reduction of rates and the lowering of prices (archive photo)
MILAN – Setback for industrial production, while employment grows. These are data for the first quarter of 2024. The seasonally adjusted economic variation for industry is equal to -0.3% while for craftsmanship the decline is 0.6% with a turnover that decreases accordingly: -0.9% for industry and -1.3% for crafts.
The consequences of the war
Various factors weighed on the results, starting with the evolution of the war in Ukraine with a possible new increase in energy costs and the blockage of the Suez Canal. The start of the year sees the sector slowing down mainly due to the weakness of domestic demand.
In the face of growing sectors: means of transport (+4.4% on an annual basis), chemicals (+3.6%), food (+3.5%) and paper and printing (+1.6%), the majority suffers like the fashion sector (textiles -7.8%; clothing -5.9%; leather-footwear -3.2%). The steel industry also contracted (-4.6%). The reduction in production levels for mechanics (-2.4%), non-metallic minerals (-2.0%) and rubber-plastics (-1.5%) was less intense.
Employment is growing
Wood-furniture stable (+0.1%). If on the one hand production shows a slowdown, however, expectations for the next quarter are encouraging, where the strengthening of industrial activity at a global level together with a reduction in inflation and a possible drop in interest rates they support the confidence of entrepreneurs.
Employment not only holds but grows: for industry it marks an increase in entries which exceed exits leading to a positive balance (+0.5%). In the craft sector, the increase in incoming flows is more marked (3.1%) and combined with a slowdown in outflows (2.4%), leads to a positive balance of +0.7%.
“Geopolitical conditions are still worrying but for the second quarter of 2024 we are confident in a reduction in rates and a lowering of prices – he specified Gian Domenico Auricchio, President of Unioncamere Lombardia – foreign markets for the Lombardy industry remain relevant and in consideration of the albeit slow recovery of world trade we are confident that the numbers can improve”.
“Monetary policy and the geopolitical situation do not help our economy, nevertheless, the growing employment data and the stability of production allow us to be extremely optimistic for the coming months – he added Guido Guidesi, Councilor for Economic Development of the Lombardy Region – Ours is a solid, mature ecosystem which, thanks to its flexibility, is able to give positive signals in negative contingencies like the ones we are experiencing. Lombardy’s extraordinary nature is confirmed despite the supra-territorial ‘brakes’”.
The president of Confindustria
“At the beginning of the year, industrial production in Lombardy was affected by a weak global trend and instability in various areas of the world that are crucial for trade. Despite this foreseeable slowdown, entrepreneurs are cautiously optimistic and see a recovery in the second half of this year driven in particular by the expected cut in interest rates by the ECB, as well as by the fall in energy costs and inflation , but look carefully at the developments of the geopolitical context”, said Francesco Buzzella, President of Confindustria Lombardia.
“In our opinion, the economic indicators of the artisan sector remain comforting despite the slowdown in internal demand – concluded Stefano Fugazza, President of CLAAI Lombardia –We are instead looking with concern at the reverberations of the international crises on the costs of raw materials and energy while we await the steps announced by the ECB on reducing the cost of money, the number one problem for businesses. Craftsmanship is now called upon to face the ESG challenge: it is essential to identify an accompanying path tailored to micro-businesses. Otherwise we risk losing another piece of Made in Italy.”
