Giro d’Italia 2024, Presentation of the Route and Favorites Stage Fifteen: Manerba del Garda – Livigno (Mottolino) (222 km)

We are facing a key passage of the Giro d’Italia 2024. The second week ends with waiting Manerba del Garda – Livigno (Mottolino), 222 infinite kilometers which above all bring to the table the bogeyman Passo del Mortirolo on the Monno side, which will leave a lot of waste in the legs of the runners, followed by the Foscagno pass and the very steep final climb towards Mottolino. This is the classic stage of the third week, which this year instead comes to the end of the second with an epilogue that could already feel like a showdown. As a stage arrival venue, Livigno has been missing since the 2005 Giro, when Ivan Parra won, at the end of an incredible two days for the Colombian then wearing the Colombia-Selle Italia jersey.

DEPARTURE TIME: 10.25am
ARRIVAL TIME (EXPECTED): 4.47pm-5.40pm
LIVE TV AND STREAMING: 10.35am-2.00pm RaiSport / 2.00pm-6.05pm Rai 2 / 10.00am-5.45pm Eurosport 1, Eurosport, Discovery+
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Route Fifteenth Stage Giro d’Italia 2024

It is the day of the “big stop”, even if in terms of absolute elevation, particularly high altitudes are not reached, except for the finale. There are five categorized climbs and, overall, the route that begins at Manerba del Garda It’s one of the really challenging ones. The road will immediately begin to point slightly upwards, until you reach km 30, where the uphill climb will begin. Lodrino (7.6 km at 4.2%). Short descent and immediate ascent, this time along the ramps of Colle san Zeno (13.9 km at 6.6%), which will take the runners above 1000 meters above sea level for the first time. A very long descent will take the caravan to Pisogne, from where the ascent of Val Camonica will begin. Passed by Malonnowhere the first flying finish line of the day is located, the road will become progressively harder until you turn towards Monno.

The ramps will begin there Mortirolo Pass (12.6 km at 7.6%), which is therefore tackled from the “easier” side, compared to the Valtellina one. However, the climb is long and has peaks of 16 percent, which are far from negligible. He will reach the top of the hill with 155.5 kilometers in his legs and 67 more to go. A very steep descent will follow, which will end in Grosio, where we will turn north once more, to begin the very long stretch, all slightly but constantly uphill, towards Isolaccia-Valdidentrowhere the day’s Intergiro will be located, which will be just a few kilometers ahead of the second flying finish line, located at the top of the climb Le Motte.

Between the two intermediate finish lines there will be a very short downhill stretch, which will take the runners to the start of the Foscagno Pass, a 15 kilometer long climb, with an average gradient of 6.4% and peaks at 11%. For the first time in this Giro, we will go above 2000 meters and will reach the top 8.7 km from the finish. However, the climbs will not be finished yet: a short descent and a very complicated final ramp that leads to Livigno-Mottolino (6.7 km at 7.6% average gradient). However, after passing the Eira Pass, there are some peaks at 19 percent, which are located in the last two kilometers of the stage, which will end at an altitude of 2385 metres.

Climbs Fifteenth Stage Giro d’Italia 2024

Favorites Fifteenth Stage Giro d’Italia 2024

The queen stage appeals to many, but especially to one. Tadej Pogacar he made no secret of wanting to win in Livigno, to end the second week in the best possible way and put yet another, almost definitive, piece on his final success. A prestigious victory from which he does not want to escape, inevitably overshadowing everyone else. It is almost impossible to think that he might want to attack from a distance, the Slovenian will probably try to control until the final climb and, once they get there, any moment will be the right one for a winning attack.

The impression is that the only way to prevent the Slovenian from winning is for a very large breakaway to start with almost all the other teams, thus forcing the Maglia Rosa teammates to work alone and perhaps having to give up their own ambitions so as not to squeeze them too. A scenario in which he would like to say that in the long range attempt there must be no dangerous men for the medium-high positions of the table, which would also force other teams to collaborate. But in a ranking that has become more clearly defined after today’s time trial, it is not so unlikely that it could happen.

Excellent climbers like Esteban Chaves (EF Education – EasyPost), Davide Piganzoli (Team Polti-Kometa), Aurélien Paret-Peintre (Decathlon Ag2r World Championship), Giovanni Aleotti (Bora-hansgrohe) e Juan Pedro Lopez (Lidl-Trek), they are actually still in the Top20, but with a gap that should not worry those aiming for the various Top10 placings, and they could have an important opportunity. Different story for men like Einer Rubio (Movistar), Michael Storer (Tudor Pro Cycling), Jan Hirt (Soudal Quick-Step) e Domenico Pozzovivo (VF Group Bardiani CSF Faizanè), who however still seem too close to be able to move freely, thus creating a possible negative spiral for an escape into which it will not be unlikely to see them go, as has been done several times so far. However, they could be less marked men in a more tactical finish, thus finding the space to emerge.

Among those who might try to move from a distance there will probably also be men like Valentin Paret-Peintre (Decathlon Ag2r La World), who demonstrated all his emerging talent in Bocca della Selva, the expert Nairo Quintana (Movistar) who will want to test his leg in view of the third week on which he has bet a lot, that Simon Geschke (Cofidis) who is mainly looking for points for the blue jersey, but also numerous riders in search of glory, so far only cherished, as Mauri Vansevenant (Soudal Quick-Step), Marco Frigo (Israel-PremierTech), Jefferson Cepeda (EF Education – EasyPost), Alexander Verres (Arkéa-B&B Hotels), Nicola Conci (Alpecin-Deceuninck) e Matteo Fabbro (Polti-Kometa), for example. A list in which a would certainly fit Giulio Pellizzari (VF Group Bardiani CSF Faizanè) however still weakened in recent days.

It remains to be seen whether some second lines could not be sent ahead, perhaps with the idea of ​​being useful for their captain later on, but with the right running scenario they could find an unexpected opportunity. The first names that come to mind like this are Damiano Caruso (Bahrain-Victorious), Maximilian Schachmann (Bora-hansgrohe), Larry Warbasse (Decathlon Ag2r World Championship), Chris Hamilton (Team dsm-firmenich PostNL) or Tobias Foss (Ineos Grenadiers), who in a large breakaway could also have the opportunity to remain more covered.

If Pogacar appears difficult to beat by the other men in the standings, the race is not won before the start. The day is one that can prove decisive, so the battle will also be there among the others and some may be able to find the wild card. In a more closed tactical scenario, in which perhaps the top of the class control themselves more, men like this might be able to emerge Einer Rubio (Movistar) e Alex Baudin (Decathlon Ag2r La Monde), with the former undoubtedly among the most anticipated climbers of this edition and the latter who is surprising stage after stage. Together with his captain Ben O’Connorthe Frenchman is the second element of a couple that could try to play their cards in an open final, even if the Australian himself is certainly one of the main suspects for success, behind the leader.

In full fight for the podium, the rider from Subiaco will have to deal with it tomorrow too Daniel Martinez (Bora-hansgrohe), who will have to give a convincing response after the disappointing time trial, the hitherto aggressive Antonio Tiberi (Bahrain-Victorious), who however did not hide the fact that he wanted to try to run more from behind this time, and a Geraint Thomas (Ineos Grenadiers) who we are unlikely to see attack, but who in any case are not easy to break away from. The Welshman will also have possible support, including tactical, in Thymen Arensman, a runner who could be sent ahead in a favorable tactical scenario to force the others to move. Like him, runners like Filippo Zana (Team Jayco-AlUla), Romain Bardet (Team dsm-firmenich PostNL) e Lorenzo Fortunato (Astana Qazaqstan) are now too deep in the top 10 to be able to think about moving in the early stages of the match, but in the final they could, in the case of higher scores among the others, have some room for manoeuvre. Legs permitting…

Bag of the Favorites Fifteenth Stage of the Giro d’Italia 2024

***** Tadej Pogačar
**** Ben O’Connor, Einer Rubio
*** Dani Martinez, Geraint Thomas, Antonio Tiberi
** Thymen Arensman, Romain Bardet, Valentin Paret-Peintre, Michael Storer
* Alex Baudin, Davide Piganzoli, Domenico Pozzovivo, Nairo Quintana, Filippo Zana

Predicted weather Fifteenth stage of the Giro d’Italia 2024

Good weather conditions in the first part of the route, but with an increase in cloud cover as you get closer to the mountains and with arrival in Livigno with low clouds, low temperatures and reduced visibility. The departure from Manerba del Garda will be with clear skies and temperatures around 17, 18 degrees. The climb to Colle San Zeno will still see good weather, but already with temperatures at the top below 15 degrees. The next stretch from Pisogne to Malonno will see mild temperatures again, up to 24, 25 degrees. Going up towards the Mortirolo Pass, increasing cloud cover and temperatures at the top around 12, 13 degrees. From there and until the arrival, irregular cloudiness, but with a low probability of rain and with temperatures in Livigno around 8, 9 degrees and low clouds.

Major pitfalls Fifteenth Stage of the Giro d’Italia 2024

In terms of mountains, it is probably the toughest day of this Giro, which brings with it the need for runners aiming high to be in top condition. The route features just a few moments of breathing space and it will be essential to be able to manage energy, also with regards to nutrition and hydration, also given the decidedly substantial mileage. Attention is then essential when descending, given that the sections descending from Colle San Zeno and, above all, Mortirolo can present more than a few pitfalls, together with the short section following the crossing of the Foscagno Pass. However, there shouldn’t be any problems related to rain, but watch out for any isolated thunderstorms, which could make the descents even more complicated.

Altimetry and Plan Fifteenth Stage Giro d’Italia 2024

Timetable Fifteenth Stage Giro d’Italia 2024

Giro d’Italia 2024 Stage 15 ChronoTable