The Pnrr was born unbalanced in the South. Government policies have always been aimed at relaunching the South since the Republic was born. Yet, the results of the political class are not only modest, they are mediocre. To put it bluntly, inconsistent. Waste summarizes the concept. The welfare policy, of the exchange vote, reigns supreme. The result is that the country is increasingly dual, as these updated data highlight.
At a regional level, national GDP growth for this year should be driven by Lombardy (+0.95%), Emilia Romagna (+0.86%), Valle d’Aosta (+0.81%) and from Veneto (+0.80%). Even though the distances between the individual regions are very narrow, it emerges once again that growth forecasts should reward Lombardy and the north-east. Compared to 2019 (pre-Covid year), all regions (with the exception of Umbria and Abruzzo) have largely recovered the negative effects caused by the fall in GDP which occurred in 2020. In particular in Lombardy (+6.65 points of GDP), in Puglia (+6.18), in Emilia-Romagna (+5.62), in Trentino Alto Adige (+4.98), in Friuli Venezia Giulia (+4.77) and in Veneto (+4.60) . Even in this circumstance, net of the extraordinary score obtained by Puglia, the post-Covid recovery affected, in particular, Lombardy and the north-east. The analysis is by the CGIA of Mestre and specifies that for 2024 the growth forecasts referring to the 107 provinces of Italy will see Milan leading the national ranking. In the Lombard metropolitan city the real added value is estimated at +1.14%. Followed by Pavia with +1.01%, Vicenza with +0.98%, Bologna with +0.95% and Modena with +0.92%. Also in this ranking the top positions are occupied by the territories included in the new industrial triangle between Milan, Venice and Bologna. In the top 10 positions, eight belong to the provinces of Lombardy and the north-east
Of the 107 local areas monitored, only nine are expected to record a negative change in added value in 2024: they are all in the South. The most critical situations concern Crotone and Isernia, both with -0.13%, Ragusa with -0.14% and Vibo Valentia, Italy’s black jersey, with -0.23%.
The note prepared by the CGIA Research Office on Prometeia data also reports the growth forecast recorded in 2024 compared to 2019 (pre-pandemic year). “Well, the province that in this period of time has overcome the fall recorded in 2020 better than all the others is Rieti with an increase of 14.34%”, says the CGIA. Followed by Syracuse with +12.95%, Taranto with +12.69%, Modena with 11.60%, Parma with +10.68% and Milan with +10%. Also in this ranking, three out of five provinces are located in the new industrial triangle of the country.
