The year 2023 that emerges from the analysis of the trend of credit granted to the entrepreneurial system of the provinces of Lucca (-0.5%), Massa-Carrara (-8.8%) and Pisa (-5.7%) presents itself with a minus sign. These numbers are overall in line with the developments recorded at regional and national level, both down by around 5%. The main cause of these contractions is the increase in the cost of money by the ECB, which started in mid-2022 and continued until September 2023, and the implementation of the new guidelines on creditworthiness assessment. Furthermore, the increase in non-performing loans, linked to the slowdown of the economy and the increase in rates, has strengthened risk aversion in the banking system, making financial institutions more circumspect in providing loans to businesses.Meanwhile, loans to households remained stable, with a decline in mortgages for home purchases due to higher rates, but offset by the increase in consumer credit (for personal loans and installment credit cards) and financing for the purchase of durable goods, also linked to the increase in car registrations. A positive aspect is the increase in savings in the three provinces, supported by indirect collections such as securities held in custody or under management. This increase is the result of investors’ search for better returns, especially on government bonds, and the increase in their value over the period considered. The reorganization of the branch network continues in all provinces. This, in summary, is what emerges from the analysis of the data from the Statistical Database of the Bank of Italy conducted by the Institute of Studies and Research and the Chamber of Commerce of North-West Tuscany.
“Credit information – he claims Valter Tamburinipresident of the Chamber of Commerce of North-West Tuscany – are indicative of a complex situation that our companies, especially the smaller ones, have in common with those of Tuscany and Italy. Although we do not have specific expertise in the field of credit, as a Chamber of Commerce we are fully committed to promoting the competitiveness of our productive fabric. Through the provision of non-repayable contributions through specific tenders and the offer of managerial training programs, focused on internationalization and digitalisation, we provide companies with the necessary tools to face the challenges that arise with determination.”
In the province of Lucca, in 2023 loans to businesses decreased by -0.5%: a change that follows that of the previous year (-4.1%) and which led to live loans (loans net of those in bad debt) to 4.7 billion euros. The reduction was more significant among smaller companies (-8.8%) and among those in the construction sector (-16.8%). Loans disbursed to larger companies, decreasing in the three-year period 20-22, instead marked a recovery in 2023 of +1.5%, a recovery also found in the manufacturing sector (+0.6%) and in services (+0. 8%). In the last twelve months, financing intended for productive investments (machinery, equipment, etc.) decreased by 4.9%. The solvency of the Lucca economic system remains good also in 2023 (with 1.37% of new impaired loans), albeit increasing compared to the end of 2022 when it was 0.92%. The credit quality of small businesses improves (deterioration rate from 1.51% to 1.43%), while that of large businesses significantly worsens (from 1.16% to 1.81%).
In the province of Massa-Carrara, credit to businesses contracted by 8.8% in 2023, reaching 1.5 billion. This is the first significant reduction, after a period of growth that began with the pandemic and continued until 2022 (+1.8%). Loans disbursed to small businesses recorded a significant contraction (-12%) which, added to that of 2022, resulted in a loss of approximately 73 million euros in two years. If in 2022 credit was supported by larger companies, in 2023 these also show a slowdown, with a reduction in loans of 8%. All economic sectors recorded declines: manufacturing -13.8%, construction -5.4%, services -6.5%. However, loans intended for productive investments (machinery, equipment, etc.) increased by +1.9%, consolidating a growth trend that began in 2021. The quality of credit in the Apuan economic system worsens: the rate of deterioration it rose to 1.85% (from 1.08% in 2022), especially in larger companies (from 1.18% to 2.88%), while it decreased in smaller ones (from 2.85% at 2.35%).
In the province of Pisa, in 2023 loans to businesses decreased by -5.7% (-245 million), a figure that adds to the reduction already recorded in the previous year (-1.1%), bringing the stock of live employment at 4 billion. The most obvious signs of tension come from small businesses, largely supported during the pandemic by support and moratoriums, which in 2023 suffered a credit cut of -9.8%. However, loans to large companies have also weakened, falling into negative territory for the first time since the outbreak of the pandemic, in 2023: -4.6%. All sectors report a decline: manufacturing -5.7%, construction -2.6%, services -6.5%. It should be noted, however, that financing for productive investments (machinery, equipment, etc.) grew by +5.4% in the last year. The credit quality of the Pisan economic system worsens: the deterioration rate in 2023 rises to 1.97% (from 1.42% in 2022), exceeding the Tuscan average by approximately 6 tenths of a point. This indicator worsens for larger companies (from 2.35% to 3.37%), while it improves for small ones (from 2.01% to 1.83%).
The note complete with graphs and tables for each of the three provinces is attached to this press release, or can be downloaded from the site www.isr-ms.it.
