The economic forecast scenarios for the area developed by the Chamber of Commerce continue to give positive signals. Even if those arriving from the recalculations carried out in April are not appreciable at the same level as they were at the beginning of the year and especially in the January counts.
However, there is a moderate increase in added value: both in the province of Forlì-Cesena and in the area of Rimini: panoramas that have been examined in detail by Prometeia – Unioncamere Emilia-Romagna
In the province
The forecast data for 2024 (the reference is to the Prometeia Scenarios of April) for the Forlì-Cesena area reveal an increase in added value equal to 0.5% (in real terms), lower than the regional data (+0, 7%) and national (+0.6%). The added value per inhabitant is estimated at 30,700 euros, a higher figure than the national context (27,800 euros) but lower than the regional figure (33,600 euros).
Who declines and who grows
At a sectoral level, a decline in the wealth produced in Agriculture (-2.3%), Industry (-0.4%) and Construction (-5.4%) is estimated for 2024, while growth is estimated for Services (+1.5%).
Compared to the previous Prometeia forecasts (those that were made known last January), the growth estimates of added value for 2024 are in fact confirmed, while 2023 is revised upwards (from +0.2% in the January document to +0.9% of the current ones).
Exports for 2024 are expected to grow (+4.5%) (again in real terms), with a dynamic higher than the regional (+2.9%) and national trend (+2.4%).
In home
The disposable income of families (at current prices) in the province is expected to grow by 3.8% (exactly like the +3.8% of the whole of Emilia-Romagna, and higher than the +3.6% of the rest of Italy), with a trend higher than the latest inflation data and the relative inflation achieved for the year in question.
At work
On the labor market front, in 2024 the province of Forlì-Cesena, faced with a contraction in the workforce (-0.2%) and an increase in employed people (+0.8%), will be characterized by of activity (74.1%) and employment (71.0%), which are confirmed to be structurally superior to the national context but lower than the regional data; the unemployment rate is estimated at 4.2%, decreasing compared to 2023, with a better positioning than the national (7.1%) and regional context (4.4%).
Finally, in 2024 productivity per employee (67,300 euros), expected to be substantially stable compared to the previous year, is still lower than that of the reference territorial areas (73,200 euros in Emilia-Romagna, 68,300 euros in Italy).
