«The tremors due to the ground rising by 1 centimeter»

The increase in seismic frequency in the Campi Flegrei worries the population. In the last week, 242 earthquakes were recorded, and yesterday alone 42 earthquakes were detected. First the sleepless and fearful night of the residents of Agnano Pisciarelli, then, at lunchtime, it was the inhabitants of Lucrino, Arco Felice, Bacoli and Monte di Procida who clearly felt the telluric events with their epicenter in gulf of Pozzuoli.

What happen

Why do the tremors increase? Mauro Di Vito, director of the Vesuvian Observatory, try to clarify: «Between 9 and 10 April last we recorded a ground rise of 1 centimeter at the Rione Terra station. Immediately afterwards the lifting speed seems to have returned to the previous values ​​recorded at the beginning of the year, although we will only be able to make a more reliable estimate with data from the next few weeks. The increase in the frequency of seismicity in recent days is therefore attributable to this 1 centimeter jump between 9 and 10 April. A similar trend, which already occurred between 21 and 23 September last year, was also recorded by the other geodetic stations near Rione Terra in a radius of approximately 2 km”.

Bradyseism effect

There is a close correlation, therefore, between the lifting of bradyseism and the recovery of seismicity. The ground uplift recorded precisely in the area of Rione Terra from the Naples room of the INGV is approximately 118.5 cm starting from January 2011, of which approximately 22.5 cm from January 2023. «The average of the current lifting is 1 centimeter per month, there are moments of acceleration and others of deceleration, a bit like between August and September last year – continues Di Vito – The energy released by the magnitude concerns the accumulation of stress, there are rocks that are able to absorb the uplift well and others not, but all the tremors of these weeks they fall within the average of those recorded so far in the Campi Flegrei. One thing is certain, however. As long as there is an increase in bradyseism there will also be seismicity.”

Forecasts

It remains only to understand what the maximum magnitude could be in the Phlegraean area. «The estimates and studies carried out so far lead to a maximum magnitude of just under 5 Md», reassures the director of the Vesuvian Observatory.

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