The first to rejoice is Giancarlo Giorgetti. In front of the numbers released yesterday from Istat, which certified growth of 0.3% in the first quarter of the year, the Minister of Economy must be a little pleased, given that he explains that “these are figures above expectations”. Then, of course, he adds, “3% would satisfy me, but we realize that in old Europe this is the reality: compared to other countries we continue to be in positive growth territory, this is obviously a reason for satisfaction”. And in fact that 0.3% on the last quarter of last year, which may appear modest, when compared with the performance of the two main EU states gives Giorgetti some gratification. Because in the first three months of 2024 France and Germany grew by 0.2%.
A small difference which, however, if you look at 2019, expands considerably. Since then, in fact, the Italian economy has achieved an increase of 3.5%, compared to the 1.5% of the French one and the modest +0.7% of the German one. These are the figures Giorgetti is referring to, on a trip to Sassuolo where he took part in a meeting at the Confindustria Ceramica headquarters. «Looking ahead» said the minister, «we must be close to all the entrepreneurs who continue to believe in us and want to invest, this is fundamental». The key word, he added, “is investing” because “if you don’t invest you won’t be able to be competitive and therefore in the end you will lose market share”. Giorgetti’s optimism received further satisfaction late in the evening, when Moody’s, concluding the review of Italy, confirmed both the Baa3 rating and the stable outlook (“which reflects Italy’s economic strength”), raised from negative last November, when some expected a failure. «Developments since then», Moody’s explain, «have been in line with expectations». The agency adds that the deficit in 2023 increased “significantly” due to the Superbonus. Estimates are for a decline from 7.6 to 5.6% for 2024 and 4.2% in 2025. Things went worse for France, which also last night saw its rating lowered by S&P from AA to AA- , for the first time since 2013. Returning to Istat data, in the first quarter GDP grew by 0.7% compared to the same period in 2023 (+0.3 compared to the previous three months). Numbers that have been revised slightly upwards compared to the preliminary estimate released on April 30, which saw a cyclical increase of 0.3 and 0.6% trend.
An increase that brings acquired growth for 2024 at 0.6% (it was 0.5% according to the previous forecast). A step forward to achieve the 1% objective indicated by the government in the Def. The one concluded in March is also the third consecutive quarter that marks a positive change. Domestic demand drove growth in the first three months of 2024, with consumption increasing by 0.2% and gross fixed investments by 0.5%. As regards foreign relations, imports decreased by 1.7% while exports accelerated by 0.6%. National demand net of inventories, explains Istat, contributed 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth: +0.2 in household consumption, +0.1 in fixed investments, while the contribution of public spending it was null. Satisfaction was also expressed by the group leader of the Brothers of Italy in the Chamber, Tommaso Foti: «The results for the Italian economy are positive and flattering». The Fdi representative then also recalled the good performance of the labor market, as noted by Istat on Thursday. «Together with the latest data on employment which in Italy has broken through the ceiling of +516 thousand units compared to last year and 84 thousand compared to the month of March, these numbers certify only one thing: not only is GDP growth determined by family consumption and investments” but also “by the effective policies and structural reforms implemented by the government”.
