Of
Massimo Gaggi
The big names in artificial intelligence, the rise of global stock markets and the fears of a crisis like in 2000. From Bezos’ optimism to Pichai’s warning, what the protagonists think
In a year dominated by wars, the chaos of Trump’s tariffs and the fear of the bursting of the technology bubble, stock markets around the world were at a gallop. With two sessions left until the end of 2026, the record is in Seoul with +72%, but Milan (+32%) has also grown a lot: more than Frankfurt (22), Tokyo (27) and Shanghai (18). The US markets appear more moderate: the Nasdaq +22%, while the S&P index of the 500 largest companies grows by 17.8% and the Dow Jones by 14.5%.
The optimists
Those who believe that the positive trend will continue in 2026 see these numbers as confirmation that excessive fears have spread. For them, the bubble on Wall Street was not that of the excessive growth of artificial intelligence (AI) stocks in the face of still undefined business models and distant profitability prospects: the real bubble is that of fear. In support of their thesis, they also cite the fact that, according to the announcements, the year that is about to open will be one of the record number of new American companies entering the stock market: public takeover offers (IPOs) of companies are being outlined which would be valued in total at 2,900 billion dollars, a figure much higher than that of the Italian GDP. And a stock market collapse in 2026 would certainly not be suitable for these placements. Can we, then, look with confidence to a continuation of the positive trend?
Optimism is a good thing but it must be managed with your feet on the ground: the risks should not be overestimated but nor ignored. First note: the most euphoric stock markets were affected by particular phenomena. Korea’s newfound political stability after the half-coup attempted by its former president, while in Italy the appreciation of defense company stocks weighed on the forecast of an expansion in military spending. As for the United States, the 2025 growth follows the double-digit growth of previous years. Are the promises of development and productivity gains linked to AI enough to continue fueling this very long positive cycle?
What the big names say
Let’s start from the observation that the bubble is there, it is real. Many say it, from the Federal Reserve to the major banks such as JP Morgan Chase, but the heads of the companies that generated it themselves admit it. For Amazon’s Jeff Bezos it is benign: if it explodes, it will, however, leave behind IT infrastructures that will allow further progress in the technological field to be fueled. The head of Alphabet Google, Sundar Pichai, warns that a rupture of the bubble would have consequences for everyone, even the most solid groups. Just like Google. Sam Altman also recognizes the existence of the bubble and has also announced investments worth 1,500 billion dollars. According to the head of OpenAI, the company at the center of all financial games, there is an overexcitement of investors for AI, a climate similar to that which preceded the bursting of the technology bubble in 2000. But he predicts trouble especially for too many start-ups born in this euphoric climate. The only “denier” of rank is Jensen Huang of Nvidia.
In short, the bubble is there but it is not necessarily destined to burst. Those preparing for the worst see the S&P 500 Shiller Cape Ratio as a sentence rather than a warning: the index, which measures the price of shares in relation to company profits over a 10-year period, reached a very high value, 39.42. There is only historical precedent: the dot.com bubble exploded in 2000.
But there are differences: back then, it was mostly start-ups that were fragile and didn’t produce income. Today any crisis should start from the “Magnificent 7”: the digital giants who are risking a lot but, except for Oracle, also generate large profits. The collapse of one of these would probably drag down the entire list also because the 7 big ones, alone, are worth a third of the US stock market. Another critical element is the circular nature of many AI deals: companies such as Nvidia, Microsoft and Google invest in OpenAI and similar companies which then spend the funds received to buy chips and space in the cloud from their own financiers. A very dangerous closed circle in the event of the collapse of some element of the system.
Trump’s role
But if in 2008 Bush, after letting Lehman fail, saved the other banks and insurance companies (since then we have talked about groups being too big to fail), too big to let them fail), Trump, much more interventionist, would do everything to shore up businesses that are not only huge but strategic for America. Even more so in an election year. The president is also looked at for the cost of money, the decline of which was essential for the stability of the stock market. In a few months Trump will have full control of the Fed: he will try to impose even greater declines. It would be music for the stock markets. But cheap money could reignite inflation – a disaster for Republicans ahead of the vote. In short, the risk remains but this bubble is not just financial, paper: it is made of perhaps excessive, but concrete industrial investments.
December 27, 2025
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