Going through the ranking of the best 2025 performers of the Ftse Mib, Fincantieri stands out with a resounding +140% approximatelyalthough in truth for almost the entire year it sailed outside the leading index of Piazza Affari with its debut among the “large” ones dating back to 22 December.
Lately, however, Fincantieri’s navigation on the stock market has been somewhat stormy. After almost quadrupling its values compared to the levels at the beginning of 2025, with an all-time high of 26.92 euros dating back to 9 October, the trajectory suddenly reversed and in the last two and a half months sales have prevailed.
Investors pulled out the stops with prices slipping to around 16.6 euros, i.e. almost 40 percent below the highs with a capitalization of 5.8 billion.
Yesterday the latest abrupt about-turn in the wake of the emergence of a possible agreement to end the war in Ukraine which triggered sales of securities linked to the defense sector. The meeting between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky in fact, it seems to have brought the possibility of reaching an agreement closer with the two leaders who have shown optimism by speaking of a “close” agreement.
A further about-face on the stock exchange arrived in conjunction with the announcement of the acquisition Xteraa company that operates in the sector of submarine telecommunications projects. Xteravalued at 65 million dollars, will be acquired by a joint venture controlled by Prysmian with an 80% stake and by Fincantieri with a 20% stake. The partnership involves the development of innovative installation and security services to become a single point of reference for complete underwater telecommunications solutions. Prysmian and Fincantieri are also evaluating the possibility of extending the partnership to submarine energy cables.
“The partnership with Prysmian could encourage the diffusion of Fincantieri’s underwater and unmanned technologies for commercial purposes. The extension of the agreement to the submarine energy cables project would have a much greater impact thanks to Prysmian’s leadership position in the sector”, comment Banca Akros analysts.
The group led by Pierroberto Folgiero surprisingly it also anticipated the launch of the new industrial plan on December 16th, although the details will be presented during a Capital Markets Day scheduled for February. In general, the shipbuilding group aims to increase productivity in all segments, with a focus on the Italian shipbuilding sector, whose capacity is expected to double.
The new plan foresees revenue growth of around 40% by 2030 compared to 2025. Ebitda is estimated to grow by around 90% in the same period. In detail, the plan indicates that revenues will rise from approximately 11 billion in 2028 to approximately 12.5 billion in 2030, with an expansion of activities in all segments. Net profit is expected to be around 500 million in 2030.
Second Folgierothe stock market jump in 2025 is an “impressive” result due to a clear internal strategy and exposure to macrotrend of the defense. Folgiero He also added that the reasons for the negative performance post-plan announcement were to be found in the rescheduling of a customer’s credit payment, along with a general decline in all major defense-related stocks.
Is Fincantieri’s El Dorado on the stock market over? The markets have already priced in the strong improvements of the shipbuilding group, which has seen its order book increase over the course of the year with new important shipbuilding contracts and renewed government support for the defense sector.
In general, optimism prevails among the analysts monitored by Bloomberg with 6 purchase recommendations (60% of the total), 4 analysts instead say hold (40%) and no sell. The average target price indicated by the analyzes is 21.75 euros, over 31% above current prices and not far from the absolute highs reached in October.
