There ECB now it is targeting businesses. The latest reckless moves of Lagarde could have serious consequences on companies in our country. And the facts and also the numbers speak for themselves. In fact, the monetary tightening puts our productive fabric at risk. This was revealed by Istat in its report on competitiveness. A simulation exercise finds that other being equal, following the rise in interest rates, in 2022-2023, 24.7% of “Healthy” or “Fragile” companies could become “At risk” or “Highly at risk” “, especially in the tertiary sector. The majority of these (19.7%) had an unsustainable capital structure in 2022. In general, it is added, in the period 2011-2022 the conditions of the production system will strengthen: the share of “Healthy” people increases every year (also in 2020) until it exceeds 37% in 2022.
Their weight in terms of employment and value added doubles in almost all sectors. The “At risk” and “Highly at risk” classes, however, went from 34.1% in 2011 to 20.4% in 2022; the latter, which show a significantly higher probability of failure in the following twelve months compared to the units of the other classes, go from 19.9% in 2011 to 10.4% in 2022 also due to the effect of the selection process carried out by the crisis of 2011-12.
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There pandemic did not interrupt this process: in 2019-22 the cases of entry (downgrade) into the “Highly at risk” class continued to decrease; those leaving (upgrading), after the peak favored by aid in 2020, have returned to pre-crisis levels. In short, the picture is one of the disturbing ones that announce yet another storm on the pockets of Italians.
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