After two weeks of tactical positioning, the great risk of appointments comes to a head. The EU heads of state and government meet again on Thursday and Friday to formalize the agreement on the leaders of the new political-institutional cycle until 2029.
And we start again, despite ailments and timid second thoughts, from the previous attacking trident: the German Ursula von der Leyen for an encore at the helm of the European Commission, strengthened by the affirmation of her EPP in the polls, the Portuguese socialist António Costa as president of the European Council, where as a former prime minister and veteran of summits he can assert his knowledge of partners and negotiating skills, and finally the Estonian liberal Kaja Kallas as High Representative, the first exponent of the East to take the reins of EU diplomacy. Out of the lot, but still in the game, is the popular Maltese Roberta Metsola, who is confidently sailing towards another two and a half years at the helm of the European Parliament (for reconfirmation, however, we will have to wait for the vote in the constitutive session of 16 July).
Meloni’s cards to gain a strong delegation in the new EU commission: the Ecr vote and the green light to the ESM
Once the so-called “top jobs” are in place, the (no less tactical) race of governments will begin to send to Brussels the right profile capable of passing the gauntlet of parliamentary hearings unscathed. Each country (except the one holding the presidency of the Commission) will have to indicate a member of the college, which has 27 members, as many as there are EU states; and ideally propose two names (a man and a woman) to ensure gender equality in the final composition, as in the last five years.
CONFIRMATIONS AND NEW ARRIVALS
Some governments have already revealed their cards. Unveiling axes that guarantee, in perspective, weighty responsibilities. Valdis Dombrovskis, the powerful number two of the Commission in Latvia, was the first name to come to the table: certain of a reconfirmation – the third in a row – after having coordinated the economic dossiers and written the reform of the Stability Pact (with credentials worthy of hawk softened in tandem with Paolo Gentiloni), this time he could aspire to a new role, a sort of super-commissioner delegated to the reconstruction of Ukraine. Perhaps with a supervisory role for those who, instead, will deal with Enlargement: Hungary demands continuity, with the outgoing Olivér Várhelyi, but given that Budapest itself has got in the way on various occasions, with the negotiations for the With Kiev’s accession starting tomorrow, the search for a more reliable and less suspicious alternative close to the Kremlin has already begun. Poland, with Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, would have the perfect profile; Hungary would instead be satisfied with a rich and strategic portfolio such as Agriculture. Slovakia also opts for a heavyweight: the outgoing Maroš Šefčovič, von der Leyen’s trusted man and all-rounder, has dealt with issues as well as with Brexit, and most recently with the Green Deal after the exit of Frans Timmermans. Robert Fico’s red-brown executive is thus betting that it will not end up marginalized in Brussels. The delicate portfolio of the ecological transition, however, would have already been mortgaged by the woman who will be the most prominent socialist in the Commission and who promises to fight to avoid taking steps backwards on the climate. That is, the Spanish Teresa Ribera Rodríguez: leader of the PSOE in the European elections, the current deputy prime minister is already involved in green policies in Madrid.
Among the most famous exits is Margrethe Vestager: the Danish liberal, for 10 years Tsarina of EU Competition and nightmare of Big Tech, will hang up her scepter. Antitrust is tempting for many, and France has long been one of the contenders. The next commissioner, even in the event of a turn to the right or left of the government following the early legislative elections, will be appointed directly by the Elysée: Thierry Breton, today at Industry and the Internal Market, will remain in the field for an encore, perhaps as director of Competitiveness but, given the major political maneuvers taking place in Paris, it cannot be ruled out that some outgoing “big” Macronians could set their sights on the job in Brussels, for example the super-minister of the Economy Bruno Le Maire.
THE DEFENCE
Then there is the unknown defence, which risks being a department without a real military role and spending capacity: early fans are less enthusiastic, but a sort of Security Commissioner could be of interest to Finland, with the Minister of Foreign Affairs Elina Valtonen, or Lithuania, with her colleague Gabrielius Landsbergis, both very active on the north-eastern front shared with Russia. Among the conservatives, if Raffaele Fitto can be called upon to find the resources necessary for the transitions, with a broad package that would range from the Budget (the seven-year budget 2028-2034 will be written in this cycle) to the Pnrr, up to the hypothetical future common financial instruments, the Czech Republic would have chosen to bet on a safe card, that is the man of the negotiations on the “price cap” on gas Jozef Síkela, at Energy. Current or former MEP experts are running for Malta (Miriam Dalli) and Bulgaria (Eva Maydell), while Luxembourg is at a crossroads: appoint the Christian Democrat MP Christopher Hansen or leave in his place, although an opposition figure at home, the compatriot Nicolas Schmit, outgoing leader of Labor and leader of the EU socialists in the continental polls. Ireland would have chosen Finance Minister Michael McGrath, in the hope of a trade delegation; important profile also for Portugal, with the former advocate general of the EU Court of Justice Miguel Poiares Maduro. If anything, the name of Klaus Iohannis for Romania risks being too cumbersome, as the president of the Republic is expiring. The Belgian socialist Frank Vandenbroucke, an expert on the topic, could end up taking care of Health. For him, however, there is an obstacle in the path: the left should remain outside the federal executive in the process of being formed.
HOLLAND AND AUSTRIA
The situation is also uncertain among the Dutch: the government takes office in a week, and will have to clarify the internal balance of the right-wing coalition before making the move. Austria, on the other hand, which fears a nationalist cyclone in the September legislative elections, would have just in time to place the popular Karoline Edtstadler, Minister of EU Affairs, in Brussels.
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