Ten days ago Kiev’s military intelligence released some satellite images showing a Su-57 – the most modern Russian fighter, capable of launching Kh-59 and Kh-69 missiles – parked at an airport in the Astrakhan region, in 600 kilometers from the front. “The images show that on 7 June the Su-57 was intact, while on 8 June there were signs of the explosion and the characteristic fire spots resulting from the damage caused by the fire”, underlines the Gur.
It was not made clear what weapons were used, but the distance of the airport from Ukraine suggests that drones were probably used, demonstrating the latter’s ability to target super-modern jets at air bases inside Russia. Drones, analysts reflect, could be a fundamental (and economical) weapon to counter Russian planes hitting Ukraine with glide bombs.
The attacks
«Kiev appears to be pursuing a clear strategy to force the Russian Air Force to leave its bases several hundred miles from Ukraine’s borders. And in any case to dedicate an abnormal amount of air defense systems to protect them”, writes Justin Bronk, researcher in military sciences in an essay for the Royal United Services Institute, a security think tank based in London. As an in-depth analysis by Business Insider explains, where to base fighter planes is always a dilemma. The closer they are to the front line, the more ordnance they can carry as the less fuel they need, plus they spend less time flying back and forth from the base to the battlefield. But this exposes them to rocket and drone attacks, as Ukraine demonstrated it could do in 2022 and 2023 with strikes against Russian planes and helicopters on the ground, many of them positioned at airports close to the Ukrainian border, although others were located within Russia. However, these were attacks specifically designed to embarrass the Kremlin and demonstrate that nowhere in Russia is safe from Kiev’s attacks. Now, however, Ukraine appears to be systematically attacking air bases with drones, just as it used American-made Himars long-range guided rockets in 2022 to dismantle the Federation’s logistics and command networks. Details are unknown about what exactly happened to the Su-57 stealth fighters at Akhtubinsk air base in southern Russia, near the city of Volgograd (formerly Stalingrad) and about 370 miles from Ukrainian territory. Images published by Ukrainian intelligence earlier this month appeared to show a Su-57 – located outdoors – allegedly damaged by long-range Ukrainian drones, while a senior official said a second stelath may have been compromised in the same attack . «It is not clear how much damage the Su-57 in question suffered – observes Bronk – The satellite photo seems to suggest that two relatively contained explosions occurred within 3-5 meters of the aircraft». The plane did not catch fire, suggesting that the damage was not catastrophic and therefore caused by drones with small warheads. It appears that the aircraft suffered damage to the nose and tail, a significant problem for a fragile, high-performance aircraft.
Electronic warfare
“Splinter damage to the rear section could be relatively easy to repair with an engine swap and replacement of the horizontal and vertical stabilizers, but that to the nose section would be much more severe,” Bronk points out. “It would likely cause damage to the radar system, infrared scanning and tracking sensor and cockpit, as well as instruments and electronic systems critical to the operation of the entire aircraft.” The question is why the drones were not neutralized by Russia’s massive jamming capability, which shot down many Western-supplied GPS-guided rockets and glide bombs, disabling numerous Ukrainian radio-controlled drones. Taking advantage of the Soviet Union’s massive investments in electronic warfare, Russia used mobile and fixed jammers to saturate radio waves on the 600-mile-long front line. The Akhtubinsk attack suggests that Russian electronic warfare has sufficient breadth to cover the front, but not enough depth to protect territory within its borders. In itself, the recent Ukrainian attack was above all a symbolic act: Russia has a dozen Su-57s, Moscow’s answer to the US F-22 and F-35 stealth fighters, and just like the vaunted T- 14 Armata jet was notable for its absence from the war in Ukraine. This likely, Business Insider speculates, betrays Moscow’s fears of embarrassment from the loss of an advanced weapon and perhaps concern that these weapons’ capabilities don’t match the narrative. What has damaged Ukraine in the last six months, in fact, has been the enormous number of glide bombs dropped by the old Su-34 and Su-35 jets. Stealths are not necessary for Russia’s all-out war strategy: obliterate Ukrainian defenses with glide bombs, then send in often poorly trained infantry. “It is a crude and expensive approach – notes Business Insider – which however has allowed Moscow to conquer portions of territory”. Even with the imminent arrival of American-made F-16 fighters, the Ukrainian air force will likely fail to repel Russian jets dropping glide bombs 50 miles behind Russian lines, protected by ground-based air defenses. “Drones for one-way attacks – is the hypothesis – could be the best solution.”
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The messenger
