The situation on the Eastern Front, in Ukraine, it’s dramatic. It is very likely that Western countries, starting with France and the United Kingdom, will be forced to send their military to defend Kiev and Odessa. The analysis of Andrea Margelletti, president of Cesi (Centre for International Studies) and advisor to the Ministry of Defense, predicts a dark future regarding the progress of the war in Ukraine: «We still don’t understand that Russia doesn’t want to negotiate, it won’t stop. I see a real risk of war in Europe before us.”
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How worrying is the situation in Ukraine?
«It’s not just worrying, it’s absolutely dramatic. The Ukrainians pay first of all for the fact that they receive few weapons from the beginning. And they receive them with too much hesitation. Now the fighters will be sent, but remember that two years ago it was said that they would never be granted. The same happened with long-range missiles. We wasted two years of time hoping that the Russians would behave as we hope they would behave. If you live in an apartment and have a complex nearby, you know that over the years it doesn’t get better, rather it gets worse.”
Saving weapons has made it more difficult for the Ukrainians to defend themselves.
“Endlessly. But the problem is not only this. Always in the hope that the Russians would change – but as Mia Martini said, men don’t change – we have not put our economies on a war footing. The problem is not so much the quality of the weapons, but the quantity. Since Western industries are not in a war economy, this means that the number of weapons leaving the manufacturing plants is the same as 10 years ago, 15 years ago. The Russians, on the other hand, have avalanches of weapons: both because they produce them because they have been in a war economy for years and because they receive them from North Korea and Iran which in turn have been in a war economy for years.”
What do we risk now?
«European involvement. The French said it very clearly. It is worrying that all this is not part of the national debate at all, with the sole exception of Minister Crosetto. All this based on a vague hope that things will be different. Are you gambling your life on hope? Now the USA has launched new aid for 61 billion euros, but the problem is still that of the constant flow of weapons, a gigantic economic and industrial effort is needed”
Which countries could deploy troops to Ukraine? From a practical point of view, where would the troops be used?
«They would send soldiers from France, the United Kingdom, Poland, the Baltic States, probably Germany, Belgium, Holland, Romania. On Italy, the assessments will be made by the government. We are talking hypothetically, let’s be clear. But if the Ukrainian front continues to collapse and the objective is to prevent Kiev and Odessa from falling into the hands of the Russians, a series of European countries will be able to take that line. I mean on the line of the Dnipro River. In defense of the two cities. Bear in mind that if Odessa fell, the Russians would have total control of the world wheat market. And if the Russians no longer give wheat to Egypt, 100 million immigrants will arrive in Italy. Just to explain what we’re talking about, just to answer those who say “but what do we care about what happens in Ukraine?”.
What would be the aim of deploying armed forces of European countries in Ukraine?
«Hopefully at that point the Russians can stop. But Russia is preparing to have an army of one and a half million people. And there is no sign of even the slightest change in Russian public opinion. Do you realize the fragilities on which vague Western hopes are based?
Why are the Russians accepting years of war and tens of thousands of deaths among their soldiers, among their loved ones who leave for the front?
«Russia is a different country, the population is used to a different relationship with power. But not since Putin was there, it’s happened since the Tsar was there. Putin has the Orthodox Church on his side, which is indeed among the main supporters of the war. And that has a lot of value. Russia is not a country with a political debate.”
Blinken said: we are willing to negotiate.
«The Russians reiterated the day before yesterday that they have no intention of negotiating. Some European countries desperately need to deal, but the Russians simply don’t want to. They really don’t think about it. I’ve been saying this for some time now: I don’t see any diplomatic solution, I see before us a total risk of war in Europe».
In Italy there are those who argue that we must promote peace and not send weapons to Ukraine.
«I am an analyst, I base myself on facts, not on imagination or the search for consensus. Do we want to understand that the Russians have no intention of negotiating? They have very clear demands on which they will not back down: complete demilitarization of Ukraine, removal of NATO from Poland and other countries in the area, denazification of the Ukrainian government which means that they decide who governs in Ukraine. All this in the hope that the Russians will stop, because then they will focus on the Baltic countries, as they have already said.”
Is there a risk of using nuclear weapons?
«If there are fights between Europeans and Russians, a Pandora’s box will open. The only certainty we have is that both the Russians and some European countries have nuclear weapons, we need to understand how long the deterrence formula will hold up. You see, I repeat: the Russians will not stop. They have 500 thousand dead, wounded and prisoners, but they carry on. They want to re-establish the spaces of the empire. But the tsarist one, not the Soviet one. They count millions of deaths. In the Second World War they had 28 million but the country did not overthrow Stalin.”
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