Perhaps no other country in the world is made up of so many ethnic, religious and cultural communities like the United States. It has not been easy for any president, and it is not easy for Joe Biden either, to govern in balance, trying not to offend the sensitivity of this or that group. An exercise that becomes indispensable in the midst of an electoral competition that will be fought until the last vote. In this scenario of uncertainty, surveys show how the orientation of ethnic minorities and, more generally, that of women could be decisive. Donald Trump is recovering support among African Americans, Hispanics and Asians: even twenty percentage points more than in 2020, but he is in difficulty with the female vote.
The weight of minorities
According to a study by Pew Research Center of Washington, for the presidential elections on 5 November 2024, out of 333 million inhabitants, 246 million and 50 thousand potential voters will register. Not everyone will go to vote, however whites constitute the absolute majority (64.8%), African American voters will be around 14%, Hispanics 14.7%, Asians 6.1%. At first glance, therefore, the electoral game seems to be in the hands of the whites. But that’s not really the case, because in the USA whoever gets the majority of votes in the whole country doesn’t win. Citizens nominate the “electors” state by state and it will then be the latter who nominate the new head of the White House. The geopolitical map of the USA is traditionally divided into two blocks between Democrats (California, New York and others) and Republicans (Texas, Alabama etc.), but neither has enough delegates to elect the president. Biden and Trump will have to conquer the seven states where uncertainty dominates. They are the so-called “swing states”: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.
The «Swing States» make the difference
At the moment, according to the latest surveys collected by RealClearPoliticsTrump leads everywhere except Pennsylvania. If things were to remain this way, “The Donald” would return to the White House. The vote of ethnic minorities could help to overturn or confirm these balances of power. African Americans can be decisive in Georgia, where they make up 33% of the electorate, and will play an important role in North Carolina (23%); Michigan (14%); Nevada (12%); Pennsylvania (11%). Hispanics, however, will be able to influence the outcome in Arizona (25% of the electorate) and Nevada (22%). Finally, Asians: significant presence in Nevada (11%), smaller numbers elsewhere (4% in Arizona and Georgia; 3% in North Carolina, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania). But where does the dissatisfaction of ethnic minorities come from?
At the moment, according to the latest polls collected by RealClearPolitics, Trump is ahead everywhere except Pennsylvania.
Ukraine and Gaza: who is with whom
A first lead leads to Biden’s foreign policy. The most obvious case is the Gaza conflict. Biden’s support for Israel has aroused the anger of a large part of the Arab-American community (3.7 million people). But 46% of whites, among whom there are of course the 5.8 million citizens of the Jewish community, support Israel without reservations. A survey of Siena Collegepublished by New York Times on March 2, 2024, reports that only a quarter of African Americans, Hispanics and Asians side with the Tel Aviv government, while around 30% stand in solidarity with the Palestinians. A figure that seems to be growing among university students today. Even regarding the war in Ukraine, the three ethnic groups show a certain coldness towards Biden’s strategy. 64% of whites agree with sending more weapons to Kiev; the percentage of blacks, Hispanics and Asians is around 50%. 53% of whites agree with Trump on the immigration ban, but also 40% of African Americans, Hispanics and Asians. Actually a research published by the site Statesman in February 2024 indicates what the real priorities are for all voters. The themesIn short, that shift the votes. In first place is the economy followed by healthcare, immigration, climate change, national security and abortion.
Price increases are unforgiving
The alarm about the US economy may seem like a paradox, in light of the fundamental data. In 2023, gross domestic product grew by 2.8% and inflation fell to 3.5% (March 2024). This percentage, apparently manageable, covers a very different situation for low-income families, hit by dramatic increases in the price of basic necessities. The most difficult year was 2022. Suddenly shops and supermarkets turned into minefields: the price of bread? Plus 15%. The eggs? Plus 49%. Butter? Plus 34%. On average, food and petrol had increased in price by 10%, public transport by 23% (source visualcapitalist.com). The increases eroded the purchasing power of all consumers: whites, African Americans, Hispanics and Asians. Two thirds of them are convinced that the country’s economic situation is terrible. 66% of whites, 56% African Americans, 71% Hispanics, 55% Asians believe that things are worse today than four years ago, when Donald Trump was in the White House. (Source: Siena College). In fact, from 2021 to today the average inflation has been 5%, compared to 1.4% in the Trump era. However, the effects on prices caused by the pandemic and the wars in Ukraine and Gaza should be considered. But, evidently, the responsibility for consumers lies with the government in Washington.
More employment, but not for blacks
In recent months, growth has boosted hiring. In March 2024 alone, 300,000 jobs were added and in 2023 wages increased, on average, by 4%. The unemployment rate has never been lower: 3.7%. But the benefits are not distributed evenly among the population. The figures released by the federal body, the Bureau of Labor Statisticsthey report that unemployment among African Americans is 6.5%, almost double the national average. On the other hand, Asian-Americans did very well with 2.5%, while Hispanics reached 4.5%.And then the house: everyone complains because they can’t buy or rent an apartment. The most dissatisfied are African Americans: nine out of ten. So prices, work, wages, housing. These are the areas on which Biden’s consensus is eroding, especially among voters of different ethnic groups. The rest, wars, immigration, healthcare, national security, remains in the background. The president is trying to react, recovering margins on the female vote which, of course, affects white, African American, Hispanic and Asian women.
Voting on abortion can make a difference
From 1964 onwards, for fifteen presidential elections, female voters outnumbered voters (data from Center for American Women and Politics). In 2020, 82 million women voted compared to 72.5 million men. In 2016, Trump won 39% of women’s suffrage, but four years later that percentage had risen to 44%, with Biden at 55%. A growing trend which however today is faltering. One of the key issues will be abortion. In June 2022 the Supreme Court canceled the historic ruling «Roe v. Wade” (1973) which guaranteed all American women the right to terminate pregnancies. From that moment on, each of the 50 states can regulate itself as it wishes. A bitter social and cultural clash has ignited in the country. According to the findings of Pew Research Center, 63% of women defend the right to choose while 35% would like to make abortion illegal (or almost) everywhere. Not only 80% of Democrats, but also 60% of moderate Republicans and even 27% of the most conservative declare themselves “pro-choice” (freedom of choice for women). At first Donald Trump had sided with the “pro-life” (no to abortion) camp. Then he must have seen the polls released by Quinnipiac University: in January 2024 its female approval had dropped to 41%, in February to 36%. At that point the former president took action. Democrats are now fighting to introduce legislation that would ensure abortion rights at the federal levelwhile conservatives oppose it. Trump tries to remove himself from the dispute: «Let the individual states decide how to intervene». A position that risks displeasing “pro-life” organizations without making inroads into the “pro-choice” movement. This is the picture as of today, with a Trump trial underway, Biden’s stronger support for Ukraine, and a pro-Palestine escalation across college campuses. Uncertainties that may still impact the November 5 elections.
