Why new US aid to Ukraine will not be a turning point in the war

More than 60 billion. Ukraine “will only be able to immediately count on approximately 12 billion dollars in armaments.” The package approved by the American Chamber is mostly intended to supply the warehouses of the US armed forces. From which further supplies for Kyiv will only be available in the near future. For now “this is aid that will gradually improve the very critical situation in which the Ukrainians find themselves”. But “it is certainly not a game changer”.

L’defense expert Dmitry Kuznetsk has been covering Ukraine’s war since the day of the invasion more than two years ago. He wrote about it mainly for the online newspaper Meduza. He is skeptical that things will change quickly one way or the other in the conflict. Not that the resumption of US aid to Ukraine is irrelevant. Far from it. But Kyiv’s problems will certainly not be solved all at once. Just as the organizational limits of the preponderant Russian forces prevent the Kremlin from changing strategy and dealing a definitive blow to the enemy before the deployment of the new weapons.

We took stock with Dmitry Kuznets via video conference from Riga.

Over sixty billion is a good amount. What changes on the Ukrainian fronts?

But it’s not 60 billion. They are just over 12 billion. In reality only part of the package, less than a quarter, is intended for Ukraine to directly purchase weapons and ammunition. The rest is to replenish stocks of war materials in US warehouses (the breakdown of the aid package includes: 13.8 billion — including logistics costs — to Ukraine for the purchase of armaments and nine billion for assistance economy in Kyiv in the form of non-repayable loans: the rest is destined for the US arsenal from which other weapons may only reach Ukraine in the future, ed.)

Will there be enough weapons and ammunition actually arriving?

Hard to say. To have a reference, however, it is enough to consider that these are supplies in line with those that the USA has allocated to Ukraine during 2023: equal to approximately 12 billion in armaments, in fact. And this is also the figure for the weapons that can arrive immediately now. Then, other deliveries are expected from American warehouses which will be replenished thanks to the package just approved by the House of Representatives. But many months will pass before this material arrives in the theater of war.

Are there frequent delays in the arrival of the armaments that Washington intends for Ukraine?

I’ll give just one example: in 2022, contracts were signed for the supply of small-diameter bombs manufactured by Boeing to Kyiv. Well, only in recent days have they actually been made available (these are the Gbu-39 Sdb, 139 kilo gliding guided bombs that can be placed under the airframes of combat drones, as well as on F-22 and F-35 fighter-bombers – which however the Ukrainian air force does not have -, ed.).

What weapons do Kyiv’s armed forces most urgently need?

The situation is truly very critical. Artillery ammunition is needed immediately, in particular for 155 mm pieces (such as the M777 howitzers supplied since the first year of the war by NATO, ed.). And, of course, anti-aircraft defense systems are needed immediately. To protect cities, infrastructure and reserves from attacks from the air.

Will the fact that supplies will arrive soon allow the Ukrainians to immediately draw on their reserves to strengthen the lines?

“Strengthen” is a big word. The Ukrainians are in a very difficult position at the moment, especially on the Avdiivka front. But 12 billion worth of weapons and ammunition are arriving. And, at least these, will arrive immediately. They could leave, from the USA or from NATO bases in Europe, as early as the day after the approval of the package by the American Senate (expected this week, ed.). And it will take only a week to deploy to Ukraine. Speed ​​in managing this supply is crucial.

But are weapons enough? And the men? The Russian preponderance is evident, even in this regard.

The issue of the lack of military personnel has provoked endless protests and debates in the Rada, the Ukrainian parliament. In the end the new law on mobilization was passed (which lowers the draft age from 27 to 25 and eliminates the discharge clause after 36 months, ed.): new soldiers will arrive. But it will take time to create the connections between departments and the lines of command that will make their insertion effective.

We understand that the long-awaited “60 billion US package” is not exactly a turning point capable of turning the tide of the war

It will be an aid capable of partially reviving the Ukrainian forces from the highly critical situation in which they find themselves. The crisis will continue for a few months, but American aid will make it possible to progressively ease it and strengthen the fronts. In the meantime, it will probably be inevitable to cede some territories to Russian forces. In a war that will continue to be a war of attrition, a war of attrition.

The Kremlin liked the war of attrition and hoped to tire Ukraine and the West, counting on a drying up of military supplies to Kyiv. The approval of the US aid package is a kind of failure of this strategy. At this point could Russia unleash an offensive to close the game?

The Kremlin would probably like to change strategy. But the Russian armed forces do not have the tools to wage a war other than the one they are waging. Despite being predominant, they advance a few hundred meters a day. It lacks the organizational quality to crush the enemy. You can’t get resources flowing without the Ukrainians noticing and hitting them. Thanks above all to the drones that allow you to follow your opponent’s moves. And kamikaze drones capable of destroying even enemy armored vehicles. And this has happened and is happening even while waiting for US aid.

So you don’t expect the Russians to attack with all their forces in the next few days, before the new Ukrainian weapons arrive?

I expect a continuation of the offensive in which Russian forces are currently engaged, but not a change in the intensity of their action. They will continue to advance slowly, trying to annihilate the Ukrainian reserves. However, maintaining an overall limited level of activity. They won’t be able to do much before the armaments and ammunition from the US package arrive. And after that, the Russian offensive will have even more trouble.

What about Ukraine’s internal problems? Are corruption, organization and morale of the population — not to mention the soldiers — elements that continue to weigh negatively on Kyiv’s resistance? Has the situation improved with the changes in military and political leadership decided by President Zelensky?

I don’t think much has changed. These are obstacles that remain. And the problem is not in the people in charge of the army and politics. The trouble comes largely from the fact that last year in Kyiv there was a real belief that the war could be won with a quick counter-offensive. As we know, it didn’t work. Many organizational nodes created due to misplaced trust in that attack remain to be chosen. Not to mention that the failure of that operation resulted in a stop to US military aid and Europe’s reduced commitment. Just at the time when support was needed most.