The five fronts of the conflict between Iran and Israel and the risk of total conflict if they unite

The duel Iran-Israel has five circlesdifferent fronts that once united become total conflict. It depends on the decision of the leaders, on the moment and on events that are not always predictable.

It is the one conducted in the past with great effectiveness and significant results. Israel has eliminated scientists, sabotaged facilities, hindered the flow of weapons/technology in favor of the Islamic Republic and the Shiite militias. Here are ambushes, raids on bases, convoys of trucks. Tehran responded with attacks and bombings, using affiliated cells – for example the Lebanese Hezbollah – tasked with avenging blows. Rule number one: don’t claim or reveal the slightest thing so as not to complicate things and keep the fire under control. This did not spare any lives. On the contrary.

They are targeted merchant ships, oil tankers and, on at least one known occasion, a mother ship used by Pasdaran intelligence in the Red Sea. The Saviz, this is her name, was damaged in 2021 by Israeli special forces and was replaced by the Beshad, who had just returned home to avoid being involved in reprisals. Explosive charges placed by commandos and suicide drones were the weapons used. The conventional navies, which have remained in the background, have the strength to raise the challenge: the Iranians are working to improve it, they do not hide ambitions beyond the Gulf, while Tel Aviv has modern units and missile submarines, an important component.

Wide ithe use of aviationeven to kamikake and attack drones, to missiles of any type. Ballistics, cruise, simple rockets certainly not sophisticated but which in the hands of movements allied with Tehran take on a political value. Because they allow you to target your opponent without worrying too much about effects and precision. On the other hand, the Jewish State has at its disposal fighters, superior technology and an anti-aircraft shield which has proven effective (be careful to place total trust), long-range carriers. They are systems with which to carry out classic operations but also targeted assassinations. In recent days the duelists have made a turning point, as symbolic as you want – for some just a show – which however led to violating the red line: they attacked each other in a direct and “public” way, albeit with different distinctions and forms. Observers rightly reiterate that a taboo has been broken.

Threats, promises of surprises, allusions to special equipment and “imaginatively” designed solutions. The propaganda campaign has always been intense, accentuating the emphasis of tones for internal purposes, with messages intended for the respective public opinions and international partners. Once the Mossad remained silent, inducing the government to adapt. Much has changed, there is a greater media presence: the famous occasion in which Bibi Netanyahu revealed in front of the cameras in April 2018 the theft of the Iranian nuclear archive carried out – according to the official version – by the secret services.

It falls into each of the previous categories, with a little more data. Israel (the Sunni regimes of the Gulf and in the past the USA) in some cases count on the help of internal Iranian opposition groups: Baluchis, Kurds, Arabs from Ahwaz, nationalists, Mujahideen. They are autonomous formations which, however, can lend a hand to cause problems. A choice of Mossad which dates back over a decade: allows you to activate already present nuclei which are provided with the necessary tools (drones, explosives, tips) and avoid risks to its agents. Iran, in addition to well-trained militias with adequate arsenals – think of the Houthis in Yemen and the Palestinian Hamas itself – introduced a variant: the use of foreigners, often figures linked to the world of crime, willing to carry out anti-Israeli missions and against exiles. Confirmation came from many judicial investigations in Europe.

April 20, 2024 (modified April 20, 2024 | 11:47)

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