Nuclear plants and cyber attacks: this is where Israel will hit Iran

“Send a message” but without creating victims, are the priorities that Israel announced in the aftermath of the attack by Tehran last Saturday. A response that has kept the Middle East and the entire world on the grill for four days, but above all theIrangrappling with an unnerving wait, which is itself a revenge.

Even the US is in the dark about how and when

The Israeli forces, together with the war cabinet, are currently studying the reasoned and “non-gut” response, as has been reiterated several times. As for the closest ally, which however has long distanced itself on its reaction methods, Washington is also groping in the dark. The United States expects Israel’s military response to Saturday night’s Iranian attacks to be limited in scope, a “narrow and limited attack” inside Iran.

Assumptions in the absence of official information on what the plans might be. “We hope that they will give us some warning so that we are ready to protect our personnel, not only military but diplomatic throughout the region“, an administration official reportedly told CNN. “But there’s no guarantee they’ll give us a warning, and they know that when they do we’ll likely re-register our objection to whatever they’re about to conduct“, he further clarified, stating that “each further move now opens up a host of other possibilities, some of which are quite scary“.

The two options on the table

So one thing is certain, in the response Tel Aviv will be alone. But what are the sensitive targets in Iran? There has long been talk of nuclear sites, Tehran’s pride and Israel’s cross. Hit them, the mother of all options. Nothing futuristic, as the plans certainly exist and would employ the use of F-35 squadrons (we talked about this in relation to the Nevatim base, in the Negev) ready to cover distances of around 2000 km. Here, however, the options would be two: create the greatest scenic effect, spreading panic through targeted explosions; or undermine the nuclear program with a surgical strike Iranian.

In this second case, Tel Aviv would need the “bunker buster” bombs, capable of penetrating sites excavated several tens of meters below the mountains: a weapon that Israel does not possess. These are 15 ton Gbu 57A/B bombs capable of penetrating rock or reinforced concrete: “nuclear” weapons in all respects, although not comparable to nuclear orders capable of exploding in the air, but still the degree of release radioactive fallout. If you still want to strike the nuclear bases, but in a softer way, there is always the option cyber attack: the “manufacturing” of the Stuxnet virus to infect the laptops of Iranian researchers dates back to 2009, delaying their research and progress. However, this option may not necessarily hit a nuclear site (which may remind some of the series Tehran), but also the infrastructure such as industries, services or fuel distributors, throwing the country into chaos.

The Fordow plant in the crosshairs?

At this point, among the eligible sites, one name resonates more than others among the analyzes and hypotheses: it is the Fordow site, uranium enrichment plant, located about 30 km from Qom in a former Revolutionary Guards base. Second only toNatanz plant, rose to prominence in 2009 when its existence was discovered by Western intelligence, before being reported to the IAEA. According to the JCPOA’s plans, the plant was supposed to slow down the uranium enrichment plan for at least fifteen years, converting it back into a technological and nuclear research site. But this was not the case: the plant continued to grow and develop after the rupture between Iran and the United States on the nuclear agreement, continuing inuranium enrichment to 5%.

Striking here rather than elsewhere would certainly have a more than symbolic impact on the enemy. Not only would it strike a site that has been the subject of international dispute since 2009, but it would also put an end to Iranian research and studies regarding its nuclear program. The facility was built 80 m underground to deal with repeated threats from Israel and an S-300 system protects it.

There proximity to the holy city of Qomhowever, would make the attack on the site even more risky, risking not only generating nuclear accidents but also exasperating the Iranian response.