AGI – The accusation of not having acted for the Palestinian population it’s one of the factors they have determined the collapse of the AKP party, in power in Türkiye for 20 years. Yet in recent months the Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan he did not spare verbal attacks and accusations against the Israeli government for the harsh offensive against Palestinian civilians in the Gaza Strip. Erdogan has repeatedly defined Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as an executioner like Hitler, Mussolini and Stalin, repeatedly accused the Israeli government of crimes against humanity and supported the genocide lawsuit brought by South Africa at the International Court of Justice of Aja.
In addition to having welcomed the sick and wounded from Gaza and sent aid more than any other country, the Turkish government has offered its willingness to act as guarantor for the creation of a Palestinian state, hosted Hamas leaders and recalled the ambassador to Tel Aviv, appointed just a year earlier. Yet a large portion of the Turkish population accuses Erdogan of not having done enough, of not having acted in a concrete manner or of having “sold out the Palestinians in exchange for Israeli money”. An accusation that this time does not come from opposition parties or movements, but from the very base of the AKP party, which Erdogan has forged over the years in his own image and likeness.
The criticism ended up producing heavy consequences in the recent local elections, where the AKP has lost not only the scepter of the country’s leading political force, but also the strongholds in which it has governed for the last two decades. Where it was confirmed, Erdogan’s party still recorded a significant decline. An example in this sense is the city of Erzurum, one of the most important centers in the north-east of the country where Erdogan’s consensus has always been solid. In recent months, Erzurum has been covered with banners against the Israeli attack, solidarity sit-ins and gazebos to collect aid for the population of Gaza. The AKP confirmed its control over the city, but lost 13% in 5 years. Same thing at Sakarya, another stronghold where Akp was confirmed, but where i points lost were 18 compared to 2019.
Precisely in Sakarya, during the rally planned as part of the president’s electoral tour, a banner appeared in the crowd calling for an end to “shameless trade with Israel”. Erdogan did not react to the banner, which was later removed, but being challenged at one of his own events is unprecedented for the Turkish leader. In the local elections of March 31st, the growth of the conservative Islamic party Yeniden Refah caused a sensation. The latter was able in 10 months to go beyond double the consensus previously obtained and conquer three districts, including Urfa, an important province on the border with Syria which has been under AKP control for years.
A boom in consensus to be kept under observation in the near future, which finds its foundation precisely in the loss of consensus of the AKP and in the electoral campaign focused on “shame” and accusations of ineffectiveness in making Turkey’s voice heard against Israel. Certainly to understand Erdogan’s collapse we must take into consideration the country’s economic problems, the unstoppable increase in inflation, the loss of purchasing power for pensions and minimum wages, but it is undeniable that the reaction, judged ‘insufficient’ , regarding Israeli operations in Gaza was a factor. The idea was conveyed by an election advert by Yeniden Refah launched on the internet in which a vote for the AKP was transformed into the stamp of an Israeli flag.
A factor admitted by Erdogan before his followers with a peremptory “we paid the price for having failed to assert our position”. The paradox was conveyed by the comment of the Israeli Foreign Minister, Israel Katz, who declared that Erdogan’s defeat was a “punishment for the attacks on Israel”. To Erdogan is accused of not having inflicted economic sanctions. A path that Turkey actually avoids taking, as happened for Russia, a choice which however this time had a price to pay. Yet, as reported by data from the Ministry of Economy and confirmed by observers not aligned with the Turkish government, from 7 October to today, trade between Turkey and Israel has collapsed by 33%.
Ankara has denied that the government and institutions have concluded agreements with the Jewish state. Data not enough to counter the buzz on social media, where for example photos have appeared of a supply of 21 tons of powdered boric acid to an Israeli company, Fertilizers & Chemical Ltd, which produces chemical substances. A tweet to which no one responded and which created a scandal among a unanimously pro-Palestinian public opinion. The accusations of affairs with the Jewish State have favored a heavy hemorrhage of votes among the more conservative electorate of central-eastern Anatolia. Erdogan will have to respond to these accusations, try to make Turkish policy towards Gaza more incisive and put the affairs between Turkey and Israel under the magnifying glass. Necessary moves to prevent the continued loss of consensus among conservatives and religious people, who have until now been the basis of Erdogan’s power.
