Russia is preparing a new offensive in the war in Ukraine and will launch the attack in late spring and summer. Moscow, however, will focus the attack in particular on an ‘operational zone’, according to the scenario outlined by the Institute for the Study of War, an American think tank that monitors the conflict that began over 2 years ago with the invasion ordered by Vladimir Putin and outlines the picture on the field. Russia, experts say, should concentrate its efforts in the western area of Donetsk, with the aim of capitalizing on the limited progress already achieved by the armed forces in recent months.
Ukraine, on the other hand, has already outlined a framework in which Russian pressure seems destined to increase on the Kharkiv-Luhansk axis and in the western part of the Zaporizhzhia oblast, southern Ukraine. Based on the ISW analysis, however, Russia would have the resources to launch a large-scale offensive only along one route: Moscow would lack the men and capabilities to engage the enemy on a double front.
Furthermore, in the last few hours, the ISW has highlighted that the Ukrainian armed forces would have repelled a ‘shoulder attack’ carried out by the Russian army in the Avdiivka area on March 30th. Moscow launched an assault on units of the sixth regiment with 36 tanks and 12 armored vehicles in the area of the village of Tonenke. Kiev would have neutralized the offensive by destroying 12 tanks and 8 vehicles, preventing the breakthrough of the front line. The outcome of the clash could indicate that Ukrainian defensive capabilities, in an area where Kiev’s troops were forced to retreat a few weeks ago, remain relevant.
Russia accuses Ukraine and the West, Moscow points to international courts
Moscow, meanwhile, continues to focus on the attack on the Crocus City Hall and, 10 days later, continues to hypothesize responsibility of Kiev and its partners. The Investigative Committee in Russia has opened an investigation into the role of Ukraine, the United States and other Western countries in the terrorist attacks, as requested by several deputies convinced that the United States and their allies. The investigation is based on material received by Duma deputies relating to the organization, financing and implementation of several attacks in Russia. The deputies forwarded a request to open investigations to the prosecutors of five countries, Russia, Germany, Cyprus, the USA and France, as well as to the Russian Investigative Committee.
Russia also intends to appeal to international courts in relation to acts of terrorism by Ukraine on Russian territory, on the basis of international conventions, said the spokeswoman of the Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, in an interview with Pervyi Kanal relaunched by Ria Novosti. Moscow is preparing the appeal and following the procedures required for requesting the arrest and immediate extradition of all the people involved in a series of attacks (of which the Crocus attack is not part), he specified, specifying that it was a note in this regard was sent to Kiev.
Among the people whose arrest is requested is the director of the SBU intelligence services, Vasily Malyuk, accused by Moscow of the explosion at the Crimean Bridge in October 2022. The Kiev regime, he added, has deliberately pursued the path of terrorism and extremism, without realizing the gravity of such actions, “repeatedly declaring that he neither regrets nor condemns the actions of his military units and the Azov Battalions and others like them, but support him in every possible way,” he underlined. The note sent from Moscow to Kiev does not concern the attack on the Crocus concert hall on March 22nd but “in the event that investigators reach the conclusion that Ukraine is involved, a new note to Ukraine will be issued”, concluded Zakharova.
