Never before has the relationship between Italy and France passed through the relationships between the political figures of the two countries: Giorgia Meloni, Matteo Salvini, Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen. If the spirits between Meloni and Macron are more serene than a year ago, the same cannot be said between the leader of the French right and the Prime Minister. Le Pen, in her video message at the sovereignist summit organized by the League in Rome, asked Meloni, in a challenging tone, if he will support a possible second mandate for Ursula von der Leyen. In Europe, the three parties of the Italian majority belong to three different groups, and Salvini wants to create a distance with the Brothers of Italy to try to win back part of the Euro-skeptical electorate that in 2019 had projected him up to 34% of the vote.
Darnis’ scenarios
For an analysis of relations between Italy and France, and to understand why Macron has transformed into an anti-Putin “hawk”, speaking openly about NATO troops in Ukraine, Adnkronos contacted Jean-Pierre Darnis, professor and director of the Master in Franco-Italian Relations at the Université Côte d’Azur.
“First of all, we need to distinguish between the Meloni-Macron relationship as heads of government and that as leaders of two parties that will soon compete in the European elections,” begins Darnis. “On the first front, although the Quirinale Treaty signed during the Draghi government is not fully implemented – particularly in the organization of intergovernmental summits – the relationship between the two countries is positive and constructive. The meeting between the two on the sidelines of the European Council went very well, and they found common ground: support for Ukraine, not giving in to Russian blackmail, coordination on certain community policies”.
And as leader of two political parties of opposing groups? “Both Macron and Meloni are playing a side game with the EPP, to build a role and weight in the future coalition. Today the Italian prime minister expresses an identity that is reminiscent of the post-Gaullist parties and she has no interest in presenting herself as a disruptive candidate in Europe. She doesn’t need you, with the kind of consent she has. There may be tactics but Macron is not campaigning against Meloni and vice versa, unlike what happened in 2019, when the French president warned against Orban and Salvini and the Northern League lashed out against ‘The Europe of Macron'”, explains Darnis to ‘AdnKronos.
Now the roles, and the burdens, have been reversed. Five years ago the League was the most voted party in Europe, this time it is Madame Le Pen who is hovering around 30% of the vote. “If these polls are confirmed, she, with her leader Jordan Bardella, will lead the game within the ID, Identity and Democracy group. Salvini could benefit from the alliance with the woman who is currently the favorite for the next French presidential elections. But we are talking about 2027, therefore a more than futuristic scenario, on which it is useless to embroider now”, adds the teacher.
There is something else French, in addition to the fractured relations between these four leaders, that has caused a stir in Italy: Macron’s phrases about the possibility of sending French soldiers to support Kiev. He who on the eve of the large-scale invasion of Ukraine had repeatedly tried to engage Putin in a de-escalation, and even after the aggression he had asked the allies “not to humiliate” the Russian president, trying at all costs an exit strategy. A conciliatory attitude that had attracted the wrath of Eastern European countries.
What has changed in the meantime? “Macron’s is a positive discontinuity,” notes Jean-Pierre Darnis in his conversation with Adnkronos. “There is a centuries-old historical and cultural bond between Russia and France. Like many French until 2022, Macron had a position of dialogue with Moscow despite the fact that in 2017, on the occasion of his first election as president, he was the victim of massive Russian troll campaigns, in favor of his challenger Le Pen. He lashed out harshly against Putin but then in 2019 he invited him to the Brégançon fort, the summer residence of the French presidents, therefore an informal and friendly context, to try to keep the Russian Federation within the European security architecture. He tried in every way, in those years and even after the invasion. But at a certain point he understood that he had not achieved any results: the Russian regime is unreliable, it does not respect the rules of diplomacy and the value of negotiation, indeed it considers them a weakness to be used against democratic countries. I believe the French and Macron have understood the lesson: the only language Putin understands is that of determination and strength. This analysis is now shared internationally, even among the Italian generals and defense experts I spoke with, even among those who don’t like Macron (and there are many). It’s not about being warmongers, but about having a position of strength, and showing that you are determined to use it if necessary.”
But Macron’s sentences have shaken Italian public opinion, which is not ready for the hypothesis of a conflict between NATO and the Russian Federation. “I understand that Italian pacifism, which has both political and religious roots, may believe that Putin’s victory and the destruction of Ukraine would have no consequences for Western Europe, and that once Kiev was conquered, Putin would calm down, without touch the Baltics or Moldova. Unfortunately it is a fairy tale, which has also been denied by recent history. Putin is testing our ability to respond to and enforce international law. If we contain it now, we avoid an even more serious crisis on a military, economic and social level. Those who care about well-being and liberal democracy which have guaranteed decades of peace after centuries of war can only side with Ukraine.”
