New construction prices are on track to surpass the dizzying peaks reached in 2008.
Clarksons Research’s new build price index has risen 5% since the start of the year and is now just 2% below its 2008 peak in nominal terms.
Once again, gas tanker and container ship orders made headlines in 2024, although unlike previous years, tanker and dry bulk orders also accelerated. Since the beginning of the year, MB Shipbrokers has registered container ship orders of around 603,000 TEUs and the Danish broker estimates that this figure will reach around 1 million TEUs in the coming months.
The number of active shipyards is increasing accordingly. In June 2022, there were 153 active shipyards, according to Greek Xclusiv Shipbrokers. This number has risen to 180 this month, with China accounting for the majority of the growth. A dynamic supported by an orderbook with containership delivery slots set for 2029 and gas tanker slots negotiated until 2030.
According to Bimco, the global shipyard orderbook now stands at over 133 million compensated gross tons (CGT), up 56 million CGT from the most recent low at the end of 2020. Gas carriers and containerships accounted for 35% and 30% of the increase, respectively.
The number of newbuilding gas carrier orders (78) has more than doubled compared to the same period last year, when 34 orders were placed, according to a recent analysis by VesselsValue. After a decade of decline, shipyard production has started to pick up in recent years, with first-quarter deliveries hitting a seven-year quarterly high of 10.1m cgt, according to Clarksons Research, which forecasts full-year 2024 shipyard production to rise 15% to 40.6m cgt.
Analysts at Denmark Ship Finance are optimistic about the prospects for the shipbuilding industry, at least in the short term, with utilization rates expected to peak in 2024, before slowly weakening over the following two years. “Continued trading activity and limited shipyard availability are pushing newbuilding prices ever closer to all-time highs,” Denmark Ship Finance noted in a May report.
Meanwhile, according to Clarksons Research, additional tonne-miles could break all records in 2024. If the Red Sea shipping crisis persists throughout the year – as many analysts predict – Clarksons estimates that shipping will need to handle an additional 3.6 trillion tonne-miles, representing growth of 5.8%.
If the Red Sea crisis were to end this quarter, 2024 would still be the second year in tonne-mile growth, after the post-financial crisis recovery of 2010. As for 2025, if the Red Sea disruption were to end, the trend could reverse and the lost miles could limit tonne-mile expansion.
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