Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella’s Rassemblement National could reach an absolute majority in the National Assemblyeven exceeding the threshold of 289 seats, in the 2024 legislative elections in France. The scenario, absolutely unprecedented for the country, is outlined by the projections of the Elabe institute for Bfmtv, Rmc and La Tribune: RN would obtain between 255 and 295 seats at the end of the second round next Sunday.
This is just one of the various projections that assign a relative majority to the Rassemblement National, but not all of them foresee the possibility of an absolute majority.
According to projections by the Elabe institute reported by Bfmtv, the left-wing bloc Nouveau Front Populaire would stop between 120 and 140 seats and the presidential coalition would come third with between 90 and 125 seats. The Républicains could reach 35-45 seats.
RN, according to projections by Ipsos Talan for France Télévisions, Radio France, France 24/Rfi and Lcp Assemblée nationale, could obtain between 230 and 280 seats. Data that should be taken with caution given that there should be around 300 triangular seats in the second round. The New Popular Front would collect between 125 and 165 seats. Ensemble between 70 and 100 seats. Les Republicains between 40 and 61 seats.
