Brescia. Europe’s energy storage strategy is contributing to rising natural gas prices, which continue to rise after winter peaks. With summer just around the corner, it’s already time for industrial players to plan for the months ahead.
This is Confapi Brescia’s analysis regarding the dynamics of gas supplies and the gas market. Andrea Muratore, analyst at Confapi Brescia, underlines the importance of understanding “how much energy costs will affect company balance sheets in a crucial phase of reorganization of supply routes”.
In 2023, the Brescia industry incurred an energy bill of 867 million euros, a 57% reduction compared to chaotic 2022, but still significantly higher than pre-Covid levels, when in 2019 it was €351 million, marking an increase of 147%. Faced with these uncertainties, it is clear that natural gas, a primary resource for national consumption, presents complex price dynamics.
«European natural gas futures are currently trading around 35 euros – says Muratore. – Although the price is lower than the peaks of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, there has been a 50% increase from February to today, linked to the rush to fill storage, placing Italy in a strategic position”. Italy reached 77.79% of storage capacity, with 155.63 TWh, placing it in fourth place in Europe after Austria, Spain and Portugal, which leads with over 92%, compared to a European average of 72, 70%. However, Italy and Europe’s dependence on global supplies to replenish stocks exposes importing countries to geopolitical tensions and price fluctuations.
Muratore highlights that «the supply to Europe from countries such as Norway, the USA and Qatar occurs mainly via liquefied natural gas (LNG) rather than via pipe, as was the case with Russian gas. In this context, the imposition of sanctions on Russian LNG and Europe’s competition with Asian nations on the LNG market makes it difficult to achieve a full filling of storages.” Furthermore, Russian gas, which represents 15% of the European energy mix, has overtaken US gas in second place after Norway, but its presence in the Italian mix is less relevant, creating further uncertainties.
For Italy, it is essential to reach the critical threshold of 90% of storage by the end of the summer. Only then will industrial areas, such as Brescia, be able to breathe a sigh of relief. Otherwise, you risk being trapped in a spiral of rising prices.
