We’re here now. There are only a few hours left until the kick-off of the 2024 European Football Championships in Germany. We start with the hosts who will challenge Scotland in Munich. Italy will make its debut against Albania in Dortmund on Saturday 15 June at 9pm. The tournament lasts a month and the group stage will last until 26 June. The top two in the six groups will go to the round of 16 together with the four best third-placed teams. The knockout phase will begin on June 29. Euro 2024 will end with the final which will be played on 14 July at 9pm at the Olympiastadion in Berlin. It is therefore time for predictions and forecasts. And this year it is technology that steps forward with an algorithm.
The algorithm
Opta has created a forecasting model to estimate the possibilities of development of a specific competition, a mathematical model used which takes into account multiple variables, including:
– strengths and weaknesses of the opponents still to be faced
– historical series of results
– previous ones
– performance indices
According to the algorithm, Italy has an 80.3% chance of passing our group where only Spain has a higher chance (89.1%), while Croatia (67.8) and Albania (33.4) they have lower numbers. Numbers that drop drastically as the competition progresses. Reaching the quarterfinals is estimated at 47.2% (eighth best chance in the competition); the semi-final at 23.1% (eighth best probability in the competition); the final at 11.4% (sixth best probability in the competition). Finally, according to the forecast model, the chances of Italy winning Euro 2024 are 5% (seventh best chance in the competition).
see also
Euro 2024, the calendar of Italy’s matches: where to watch them on TV
The predictions
So who will win? Statistical and mathematical calculations say that England has the highest probability of winning the final with 19.9% ahead of France with 19.1%. Third and fourth are Germany with 12.4% and Spain with 9.2. These are the numbers. Then there are the variables and factors that could blow everything up. Because we know, football – like all sports – also and above all lives on emotions.
