European elections, the thunderous crash of Scholz and Macron

The European elections 2024 they already have the two big losers: Olaf Scholz and Emmanuel Macron. Soundly rejected at the polls a few weeks after speaking, from the columns of Financial Times, of a future construct for Europe, ambitious and of broad systemic scope, the French president and the German chancellor saw their parties, Renaissance and the SPD, collapse.

For the young Macronian formation, leader of the liberal Renew Europe group, and for the historic German social democratic formation, it is the worst electoral result ever achieved. In France, Macron’s party, given just above 15% by the exit polls, was more than doubled by Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National, which soars to 31.5%. Obtaining, obviously, the most prestigious result in its history. In Germany the Spd drops to 14%, worsening the 15.8% of the 2019 European elections and canceling, with interest, the gains from the 2021 policies.

To understand the extent of the defeat, Macron loses 7 points compared to the 2019 European elections and over ten from the presidential elections two years ago. While the SPD never did so badly after the Second World War. And to get back to a lower percentage you have to go back to 10.1% of the German Empire election of 1887. Macron is overtaken by the Rassemblement of Le Pen and the rising star Jordan Bardella, Scholz collapses together with the Greens and the Liberals of the FDP coalition partners, who respectively fall to 12 and 5%. Added together, the three teams would slightly exceed 29% of the CDU-CSU, leader of the opposition. And the SPD is even overtaken by the ultra-right of Alternatives for Germanyat 16%.

For two and a half years the Franco-German axis of Scholz and Macron has, with great internal conflicts, tried to keep Europe’s bar straight continuing to form the “engine” of the Commission’s trend lines. Macron and Scholz have amplified the dynamic inaugurated by Angela Merkel as “Chancellor”, with the transalpines Nicolas Sarkozy, François Hollande and most recently Macron in her presence, of reduce to a Paris-Berlin codomain decisions about Europe. The emblem of all this was the stance taken on energy transition, after the traumatic break with Russia, and on the war in Ukraine. Macron for a power projection strategy, Scholz and compatriot Ursula von der Leyen have over time abandoned the frantic search for an agreement on Ukraine to become rigidly clear on the containment of Vladimir Putin.

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In recent weeks it is worth underlining how the pre-conflict mobilization has permeated the communication of the two governments. Macron has taken clear positionsin the SPD that of the Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, who even warned Germany to “prepare for war” by 2029. This appeared to be an attempt by the two leaders to enhance their centrality as heads of executives in the face of a context that saw growing electoral disaffection. And France and Germany have to resolve issues that have long been unresolved.

From Paris we remember the main problem of growing public debtthe anemic economic recovery of the suburbs, the increase in inequality between Paris and the rest of the countrythe sediments of the social revolt of the Yellow Gillets and of the critical movement of the pension reform, the split in the social fabric connected to the Macron’s liberalizing reforms. All themes watered down by the president with the relaunch of the myth of puissance military. Moreover, it is challenged from many sides, especially in Africa.

Germany, however, is experiencing an identity crisis in its development model after that war in Ukraine it broke many of the foundations of export-based logic and the low energy prices that made it its economic fortune. The beatings of the accounting judiciary against the government for the “holes” found in the budget did the rest. Scholz’s ambiguity in deciding to what extent to embrace or not the need for a geopolitical relaunch of Berlin in a Europe in transformation was then combined with blatant American economic war launched with green and technological subsidies precisely to reduce Berlin’s strength in the leading sectors, in which Germany is considered too closely linked to China.

Macron and Scholz, lost in their solipsism, have failed to master these and other dossiers the fundamental dynamics. And now the electoral blow to the European Parliament suffered by them can potentially reshuffle the cards of the Franco-German axis within the European Council where key decisions will be made. The single men in command have gone off the rails on the toughest climb in the race for Europe: a rejection of their policies and also of an idea of ​​the European Union that can no longer be thought of as detached from priorities, which range from legitimate aspirations to fears, of the peoples and of the other member countries.