The Ministry of Agriculture, Food Sovereignty and Forestry disseminates regularly bulletins in which the data that clarify the state of agricultural production are reported. These are obviously very useful numbers to be able to have agricultural planning that is as appropriate as possible to the needs of the community.
Bulletin 5/2024 of the Central Inspectorate for the Protection and Repression of Fraud in Agri-Food Products (ICQRF), reports the stocks as of 30 April 2024 of oils held in Italy. These are updated data, continuously monitored, from which 223,409 tonnes of olive oil were in stock as of 30 April compared to the 242,803 tonnes recorded as of 31 March, a month earlier. These quantities were 23.8% lower than the previous year and also consider that 73% of the April stock is made up of extra virgin olive oil (EVO). Furthermore, EVO is 68.5% of Italian origin, 22% of European origin, the remaining part, approximately 1.5%, is virgin olive oil. The suffering stock of EVO is considered worrying news because it may not be sufficient to ensure the consumption of extra virgin olive oil for everyone until the next harvest. If we consider that the data for the end of March and the end of April show a difference of 9% less, and knowing that at least another 32,000 tons of extra virgin olive oil per month will be needed to reach November, the problem is well defined and amounts to insufficiency .
It is certainly an Italian problem but it also aggravates the Spanish situation, another major producer; the first in Europe, which has already been facing a crisis for two years now. But by having large quantities of storage, due to the enormous quantities produced in previous years, the Spanish market will be able to help fill the gap in availability that we need.
What is happening in Spain and especially in Cataloniaallows us to introduce the probably most serious cause of the lack of olive production: the climate change. The conditions for the correct cultivation of the olive tree are known to require a rainy and cold winter – without, however, temperatures dropping below minus 10 °C – and a sunny and hot summer season. Equally irrefutable is that in recent times, extreme climatic events which can have destructive effects on crops have occurred with unprecedented frequency. This is what was stated by Luca Sebastianiteacher of the Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna of Pisa, who, during a seminar organized by the National Academy of Olive and Oil – Olive tree and response to environmental stress: what scenarios in light of climate change? – reinforced the idea that the damage caused by salt and water stress related to climate change on olive tree plantations can be considerable [2].
Another necessary underlining is that in Spain, for three years now we have been in the midst of a serious drought which is causing reductions in water consumption that are difficult to consider sustainable. In the rest of the major producing countries the situation is not that it compensates given that production failures due to climatic conditions, but also other things, are observed with concern for the future. The mandatory reductions in water consumption in the Iberian country are reported to be quantifiable as a reduction of 80% in agriculture, 50% for livestock farming, and 25% in industry. In short, the worst drought encountered in modern history. The reductions have also been applied to the use of water in tourism in large hotels, those intended for a demanding and wealthy guest who frequents the top-rated structures offering services that the water shortage will no longer be able to guarantee. Also in this case therefore, as in the reduction of oil production, climate change undermines the difficult economic balances, and without wanting to mention what happens elsewhere, in very close geographical areas, and even in distant regions, unequivocal signs of change are observed: reductions of the glaciers disappearing at unprecedented rates, or the never-seen temperatures above 50°C that kill living beings in India as well as agricultural production. For the deniers, who evidently can only count on ignorance for their possible credibility, it would be enough not to overlook the repeated hailstorms spread across the entire country with the unusual violence that has manifested itself in Salento in recent days to change their opinion and urge, with the rest of the people, adequate measures to avoid worsening the climate further. However, perhaps we are in the belated condition of no longer being able to count on that minimum of measures that could attempt to counteract this state, assuming we can still obtain results with reasonable speed. Not to attempt it would however be irresponsible with no way out, especially since other paths are not permitted or even known.
Another consideration not to be underestimated is the inevitable upward swing of product prices. It is due not only to the inevitable production variables linked to the climate, but also to the indirect effects that the increase in temperatures and Drought cause on productions. This is the case of the devastation in Salento caused by Xylella. Anyone who has had the opportunity to see the state of the exterminated plantations can hardly remove from their eyes and mind the displeasure and the sense of helplessness in the face of these scourges. Droughts have also caused the need to resort to irrigation of plantations which significantly increases production costs. Other price increases have affected the product: energy costs for processing the product and milling, the doubled cost of glass containers which have led some to use PET with all the resulting damage to health and safety. environment. Other topics also enrich the production difficulties of oil with controversy, such as the lack of relevance of advertising initiatives of a company producing and selling oil which aimed to protect and improve the lives of beespollinating insects par excellence, suggesting that the decrease in the number of bees, which has been evident for some time due to the destruction of habitats and pollution, is a contributing factor in the production difficulties of oil [3]. This is not the reason, not in the case of the olive tree, it explains it very well Rocco Addante, entomologist and researcher at the University of Bari. But then we must also consider that a very, very indirect connection can be found. In fact, during flowering, bees can flutter around the flowers of the olive trees and this could make them believe they are responsible for a pollination of the olive flowers which in reality is guaranteed by the wind, i.e. called anemophilous pollination, almost entirely. The olive tree flowers produce a large quantity of pollen which is also spread thanks to a small presence of wind. The role of bees is mainly considered insignificant compared to that of the wind. The indirect cause of the role of bees is instead linked to being an indicator of the healthiness of the fields, to indicate olive tree crops free from chemical pollution and pesticides but not directly on pollination and therefore on the harvests of the olive groves. Another fact that is underlined in confirmation is that the flowers of olive trees have not evolved into intense scents, bright colors and scented nectar in order to attract insects, as in the case of angiosperms. In this last type of spermatophyte plants they are characterized by the need to guarantee the so-called entomophilous pollination, carried out by insects which, attracted by perfumes, colors and nectar, in passing from flower to flower, carry the pollen necessary for the development of new seeds.
However, returning to the production numbers, the consideration of the serious decrease compared to the average of 3 million tons of previous years is added to the already explored global oil decrease with numbers equal to 2.4 million tons. This scenario has a tendency to worsen when the shortage of EVO oil stocks is confirmed, insufficient to survive the harvest period of the new product.
Emidio Maria Di Loreto
[1] ICQRF – Frantoio Italia: Report n. 5/2024; data as of 30 April 2024 of oil stocks held in Italy
[2] Giuseppe Francesco Sportelli, Olivo e Olio Magazine, Climate change: what is the role of olive growing?, 1 June 2021
[3] Elisabetta De Blasi, Natural Theatre, Bees don’t make oil and neither do olives, August 23, 2018
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