Gold does not stop and reaches new historic highs, at 2,454 dollars an ounce (data investing.com). In less than 18 months, from the lows of November 2022, to 1,618 dollars, the yellow metal has achieved a leap of approximately 60%. And the bullish trend could continue in the coming months, in the wake of the policies that the central banks will pursue. «In recent years, in contrast to history, gold has risen despite the restrictive action, in terms of monetary policy, of the central banks – explains Carlo Alberto De Casa, analyst for Swissquote -. Various factors supported the prices, starting from the accumulation of physical gold by the central banks themselves (with China in the lead), which between 2022 and 2023 bought more than 1,000 tons of physical gold. We are at the highest levels in decades and this trend does not seem likely to change in the short term. And then, behind the rise of the yellow metal, there are also reasons for portfolio protection. With the stock markets continuing to rise, market valuations appear tight and this, combined with the worsening of geopolitical tensions, has pushed (and is pushing) investors to diversify their portfolios and park their savings in the most classic of safe haven assets, They. These reasons that have supported gold up to now will be the same ones that could drive the rise in the coming months, but with an additional driver: once again the central banks”.
The quotes? They may not come back
The first interest rate cuts could arrive in the next few weeks, starting from the ECB, which will meet on Thursday 6 June. Analysts estimate at least two price cuts during the summer and, historically, gold tends to be inversely correlated to the trend in interest rates. With the Fed and ECB cutting rates, therefore, the prices of the yellow metal should rise. It is a crucial moment from a historical point of view, with geopolitical tensions and central bank policies which, together, are playing in favor of gold prices. The big price shock occurred in March, when the valuations of the yellow metal rose in the space of a few hours from around 60 euros per gram to 72 euros. Today prices are around 70 euros, a value from which it will probably be difficult to go back. In the past, when there were strong upward movements like the one in March, in the weeks immediately following there were adjustment phases that stabilized the price. And that’s what’s been happening in recent months. Having said this, “regardless of the valuations – according to Simone Manenti, CEO of Confinvest – gold represents an investment opportunity regardless, especially in terms of portfolio protection”.
How to bet on the yellow metal
How to invest? There are several roads. Among these, managed savings, for example through ETCs (Exchange trade commodities), the stock market, or by investing in gold securities, such as those of companies involved in mining, and then physical gold, such as the “traditional” ingot or coins (see article below). The ETC is the form that comes closest to physical gold, unlike the stock market, which also exposes the investor to counterparty risk. By purchasing the raw material directly, however, there is no this danger and consequently, having a proprietary underlying, the value of the investment can never go to zero. Furthermore, the sale of physical gold for investment is exempt from VAT and there are no possession taxes or declaration obligations. If you decide to leave the gold in the custody of specialized operators, however, you will have to pay a commission. «We have a vault in Milan where we keep the physical gold, which is 100 percent insured – Menenti points out -. Prices? Up to 24 thousand euros of equivalent value the cost is 120 euros, above 24 thousand euros, however, the premium is calculated starting from the second year at the rate of 0.04% calculated on the value of the gold left in custody”.
