The sixty-three-year-old Iranian presidentAyatollah Ebrahim Raisi he was deputy leader of theIran from 2021; always dressed in his black turban and religious cloak, in full difficulty both internal and external to the country, he impersonated ultra-conservatism and above all he was a strong supporter of the New world order, today represented by Brics+ Group of which Iran has been part since January 2024.
But too many links in the regime are coming loose under the pressure of a foreign policy based on self-centeredness at all costs, and under the social suicide which is plaguing the country. However, immediately after the announcement of the president’s death, important signs of solidarity were expressed to the Government of the Ayatollahs both by Iran’s traditional allies, located within “theresistance axis” as opposed to Israelboth from Sunni world traditionally opponent of Iranian Shiism. At the moment, the Government of Islamic Republic it closed in a protective insulation, which does not foresee changes in foreign policy and in the region. So, we have a continuation of support for Hamas and his Shiite allies: the Hezbollah in LebanonThe Houthis in Yemen and the Shiite militias in Syria And Iraq.
The fireworks launched by Iranian opponents of the executioner regime when the president’s death was announced were followed by little heartfelt messages of solidarity from the Sunnis Mohammed Bin Zayedpresident of Emirates United Arabs and from Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al Thaniemir of Qatar. A greater show of support was expressed by Iran’s allied countries, such as Syria And Lebanon, who declared three days of national mourning. Al Thani and Bin Zayed had met for the first time with Raisi, in Saudi Arabia to Riadin November 2023, in an extraordinary summit where the other Arab leaders were also present to discuss the current situation in Gaza.
But also the Türkiye he shared the pain of the friendly and brotherly Iranian people: so he declared Hakan Fidan, Turkish Foreign Minister. Same thing for Iraq, whose prime minister Mohammed Chia Al-Soudani expressed sorrow for the serious loss, expressing condolences to the supreme leader of the Islamic Republic, Ali Khamenei. Hachd Al-Chaabi – a coalition of pro-Iranian Iraqi armed groups – underlined that President Raisi has always maintained that Iraq and Iran represent a single people that cannot be separated. The Pakistan he decreed a day of national mourning and the flag to be flown at half-mast. So does the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi he said he was saddened and shocked by Raisi’s tragic passing. India and Iran have close relations especially in the context of oil trade which goes from Tehran New Delhi. Sober solidarity that manifested by President of the European Council Charles Michelwhich expresses condolences both for the death of President Raisi and Minister of Foreign Affairs Abdollahian, and for the members of the delegation and crew who died in the accident.
However, the messages of condolence from the Lebanese Hezbollah which have exalted the figure of Raisi, protector of the “Palestinian resistance movements”, like that of Foreign Minister Abdollahian, appear to be excessive in describing the role that the two leaders have played both in political operation of Iranian strategic expansionism, which “in the axis of resistance”. In fact, one perceives rather a convinced recognition of the weight of the power of Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, the only effective decision-making figure in Iran. Raisi and Abdollahian were certainly reliable servants of the regime, but the operator is the Supreme Leader, who has control and command of the Revolutionary Guards and its elite external operations unit, the Al-Quds Force. So a general one is expected political continuity, both domestic and foreign. A continuity towards the “axis of resistance”, and a strategy to maintain a climate of détente with its Sunni neighbors in the Gulf States. Furthermore, the role of “reliable soft cobelligerent” with the Russiathrough the supply of Iranian drones to Moscow’s army and much more.
Everything orbits in a context that sees the regime of the Ayatollahs in a strong political crisis, in a particularly tense context within the borders of the regimeand with a very alarming economic situation, with tensions between Iran and Israel consolidated to an unprecedented level of intensity following the April 13 attack led by Iran, and the Israeli-led response a few days later. It also exists the doubt about the cause of the accident which led to the death of the president and his collaborators; in fact, the reasons for the helicopter crash are still unknown.
At the moment, despite the Iranian Government’s ostentation of the casualty of the crash of the aircraft, suspicions fall on theAzerbaijan, historic ally of Israel. The relations between the two States fall within the scope of “Doctrine of the periphery” applied by Israel; a historic strategy that aims to develop relations with non-Arab states on the margins of Middle East. A pragmatic and strategic approach, that of Baku with Bethlehem/Tel Avivalso sealed by the agreement Göksel of 2015.
If the thesis of the accident is currently considered, for political reasons, as the most probable hypothesis, a possible involvement of Azerbaijan or Israel in the crash, if proven, could dangerously raise the level of the crisis in the area. This would nullify the efforts of the United States in convincing Iran and the components of the resistance axis, under its direct authority, in Iraq and Lebanon, to withdraw from the conflict. The fact remains that these types of “elimination” always fall into highly critical geopolitical contexts. And the present circumstance, for about forty dayshe expresses majestic crisis levels.
Updated May 23, 2024 at 09:40
