OfSamuele Finetti
The American political scientist: «It was irresponsible to fly it in those conditions. I don’t expect new mass demonstrations”
«The news of the accident and the death of Ebrahim Raisi certainly has a great impact in Iran and outside its borders. But its scope is smaller than one might expect,” explains the political scientist Ian Bremmerhead and founder of the Eurasia think-tank.
Live news on the accident in Raisi
Why?
«First of all, because in Iran power is not in the hands of the president, but in those of the supreme leader and the Council of Guardians of the Constitution. Therefore his disappearance will not have significant consequences on the stability of the government. And then because Raisi is not very popular: citizens do not consider him capable. The low turnout in the March elections, for many a referendum on his figure, demonstrated this. Now the regime will have a chance to find someone better for the position. And the regime made a bad impression yesterday.”
That is to say?
«The question that arises spontaneously is: in those conditions, why let the president’s helicopter take off? And why let the Foreign Minister fly with him too? The impression is that it was an irresponsible choice.”
So should any hypothesis other than an accident be excluded a priori?
«I would say yes, it seems extremely unlikely to me that it wasn’t an accident. And I believe that the regime will also not blame an external actor, be it Israel or the United States, unless there is certain evidence. It’s very simple: right now Iran doesn’t want to increase tensions with its historic enemies because it doesn’t want a war.”
Could the regime be weakened? Raisi was among the favorites to succeed Khamenei, who is 85 years old.
«It could make him more fragile, although he will certainly not suffer pressure similar to those that followed the killing of Mahsa Amini. Furthermore, in recent months the chances that Raisi could succeed as Supreme Leader have been significantly reduced precisely due to his unpopularity.”
Could the internal opposition benefit in some way from what happened?
«We must always keep in mind how ferocious the Iranian regime’s repression is. Someone will celebrate what happened: how will the authorities respond? Will they punish them to set an example or will they let it go? This is the main question. A first signal will come from social media. In any case, I would be very surprised to see new mass demonstrations. Iranians know well what the consequences are for those who protest openly.”
With Raisi dead, new elections will be called within 50 days. What profile could Khamenei choose as the new president?
“He will undoubtedly focus on an ultra-conservative figure, who is loyal to him and who is able to guarantee the trust of the Revolutionary Guards: the Pasdaran are becoming more powerful every day.”
Will Khamenei also take his own succession into account?
“Certainly. Not only is the supreme leader very old, but there are reliable rumors that he has been ill with cancer for some time. The question of who will take his place is very, very sensitive.”
May 20, 2024 (modified May 20, 2024 | 12:08)
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