THE prices of theextra virgin olive oil countryside 2023-2024 they return to go out in Italy or to stay on values slightly lower than the maximums reached in January 2024.
The values are stable in Commodity Exchange Bariwhich all things considered has not lost much compared to the maximum values reached last winter, while Milanwhich had been affected by the declines in imported oil, influenced by a better than expected vintage in Spain, now returns with rising prices, given the exhaustion of the downward pressure coming from the Iberian country. This eventuality also derives from the fact that in the last month the Spanish Government has not updated estimates of production, stopped in March 2024.
For his part Ismea register a national average price for the Ages clearly recovering between the first and second week of May, although, as will be seen, there is still uncertainty about the values per square and the national average value.
The scenery remains characterized by a2023-2024 vintage not brilliant in Italy on the plan quantitywhich keeps the demands of olive oil producers high, comforted by stocks in Italy at March 31, 2024 down on the previous month e below 18.5% compared to the same month of 2023. While the long-term weather forecast for next summer, characterized as of now by a heavy drought and very high temperatures in the Southdo not bode well for a production recovery in Italy and the Mediterranean countries.
Goods exchanges, prices stable in Bari
At the Bari Commodity Exchange yesterday, Tuesday 14 May 2024, theextra virgin olive oil with a maximum acidity of 0.4% titrated in oleic acid, confirmed i 9.60 euros per kilogram minimum hey 9.80 euros on maximumsvalues reached in previous sessions from 9 April onwards, when there was a drop of 0.10 euros per kilo compared to the price of 26 March 2024, the latest recorded by AgroNews®. In essence, the high quality EVO oil on the market in Bari remains at a very close level to that oflast risea good 0.70 euros more, which took place on 9 January 2024, which had brought prices to the range of 9.70-9.90 euros per kilo.
Also on May 14, 2024 Oil Commission quoted theorganic extra virginwhich was confirmed at single price Of 10.20 euros per kilogram, stable on sessions from 9 April onwards, when there was a decrease of 0.30 euros per kilo compared to the session of 26 March 2024, the last recorded by AgroNews®. Organic oil also remains at a level very close to that of the last increase, of 1 euro per kilo, which occurred on 9 January 2024 and which had brought the product to the single price of 10.50 euros per kilogram.
The Dop Terra di Bari oils And IGP Puglia on May 14th they were both set at single price Of 10 euros per kilogram, stable on this value from 9 January 2024 onwards, when an increase of 2.60 euros per kilo was recorded compared to 7.40 euros on 13 June 2023, the last session in which these oils were listed in the 2022-2023 commercial campaign. Therefore since the last survey carried out by AgroNews® Nothing has changed since the meeting of March 26th.
At the Commodity Exchange from Milan yesterday, May 14, 2024, theItalian extra virgin olive oil was set at 9.25 euros per kilogram minimum and from 9.50 on maximums, increasing by 0.05 euros per kilogram on previous meeting on May 7th. Compared to the last survey of AgroNews® – which dates back to 2 April 2024 – the current price of this oil on the Milanese market still loses 0.05 euros per kilogram, after a phase of declines which occurred around mid-April.
Also listed on the Milan Commodity Stock Exchange on 14 Aprilextra virgin olive oil imported into the Community which reached prices from 8.30-8.75 euros per kilogram, scoring a increase of 0.20 euros per kilogram on the previous session of 7 May 2024. Compared to the latest findings of AgroNews® on the session of 2 April, there was a decrease of 0.20 euros on the minimums and parity on the maximums again at 8.75 euros per kilogram. Also in this case, prices recovering after one decline phase even more significant than for the national product which occurred on several occasions during the month of April.
Overall, in Italy seems to have arrested L’bearish wave – which established itself last April – with differentiated effects on the two main stock exchanges listed: in fact, if in Bari prices were limited to an overall limited decline compared to the January highs, in the Milan Goods Stock Exchange the values instead suffered first significant losses and then a recovery in the last week.
Prices at origin begin to rise again
THE prices at the origin in the last week forextra virgin olive oil – according to one esteem Of Ismea – I am increased of the 0.7% on the previous week, reaching a national average price Of 9.45 euros per kilogram in second week Of May 2024.
As can be seen from the graph below, this is the first upward movement after a phase of declines, followed by the high reached in the fourth week of January at 9.61 euros per kilogram. THE discounts had brought the national average price up to 9.39 euros per kilo, a value that remained stable between the third week of April and the first of May 2024.
Compared tolast value detected by AgroNews® in the third week of March at 9.56 euros per kilogram, currently there is a loss of value of 0.11 euros per kilo. Furthermore, it is noted that thecurrent level of prices is superior of 48.6% compared to that of a year ago.
National average prices of EVO oil until the second week of May 2024
(Source: Ismea)
The situation of prices substantially increasing has not yet been confirmed in the disaggregated values per squaresince Ismea is still entering the data and – perhaps – has in review phase the same national average price that Ismea itself hypothesized last night 9.82 euros per kilogram in second week of May 2024 against 9.39 euros in the first week, with an increase in just one week of 0.43 euros per kilogram (+4.6%).
Italy, +20% forecast for 2022
The production estimates for theItalydeveloped by Ismea in collaboration with Italy Olive growing And Unaprol and published on October 13, 2023, indicate a 20% recovery for the 2023-2024 campaigndespite a difficult year, conditioned by the winter drought which was followed by spring rains which caused flower drop and fruit setting difficulties in many areas.
According to the data collected, production may not reach the average levels of the previous four campaigns. The data, in fact, stands overall at 290 thousand tonswith a growth of 20% compared to last year.
Ismea’s assessments are confirmed in estimates almost superimposable Assitolbranch the November 10, 2023: 289 thousand tonsstill recovering by around 20% compared to the 240 thousand of the previous campaign, but well below from the 350 thousand tons of the best and most recent campaigns. At the moment Ismea has not yet published the data of end of campaignusually available since April.
Evo stocks in Italy as of March 31, 2024 -18%
In Italy the stocks Of Evo to end of March 2024 they are brought to 179,498 tons, decreasing on the data of the end of February Of 18,775 tons (-9.5%)but – second Oil mill Italyreport number 4 of 2024 – the data for March 2024 is inferior of the 18.5% to that of March 2023equal to 220,311 tonnes: they disappear so good 40,813 tons of product in stock.
Evo oil from Italian production remaining at the end of March 2024 is equal to 125,469 tonsin increase of the 7.3% on 116,965 tonnes as of March 30, 2023. But Frantoio Italia warns: “Within the scope of Evo, the data on the quantity of product of Italian origin is worth mentioning which, with 125,469 tonnes, is 7.3% higher than on 31 March 2023, but not sufficient to compensate there strong reduction of stocks of EVO oils of EU origin (-56.1%)“. A reduction in supply on an annual basis which is destined to support the prices of national extra virgin olive oil, especially if the forecasts for the next campaign are not at the top.
Forecasts and production in Spain in March 2024
There is no news coming from Spain: the production of the oil mills real cumulative value of pressure oil provided by Iberian Ministry of Agriculture for the 2023-2024 campaign it’s still one esteem for the period from 1 October 2023 to the end of March 2024. Madrid reiterates that it has produced approximately 845 thousand tonsa fact that scores a increase good 70,347 tons on the estimate of end of January (774 thousand and 653 tonnes) then updated on 13 February (+9%).
And the consolidated production figure in March of 845 thousand tonnes exceeds by a good 78,700 tonnes the Spanish Government’s forecast for the end of October 2023, which had been set at 766 thousand and 300 tonnes at the end of the campaign. Based on the experience of previous years, it is reasonable to think that the forecast at the end of October will be exceeded with the corrections to the calculation errors.
Meanwhile, in the ongoing campaignstarted on the 1st° last October, the olive oil production of the Iberian country in March 2024 is already superior Of 181 thousand tons (+27.25%) compared to low yield of the previous one 2022-2023 season which amounted to just over 664 thousand tons.
